Contributors: Murray, Graham Keith, Ermakova, Anna, Gileadi, Nimrod, Knolle, Franziska, Justicia, Azucena, Anderson, Rachel, Fletcher, Paul Charles, Moutoussis, Michael
... Jumping to conclusions during probabilistic reasoning is a cognitive bias reliably observed in psychosis, and linked to delusion formation. Although the reasons for this cognitive bias are unknown, one suggestion is that psychosis patients may view sampling information as more costly. However, previous computational modelling has provided evidence that patients with chronic schizophrenia jump to conclusion because of noisy decision making. We developed a novel version of the classical beads-task, systematically manipulating the cost of information gathering in four blocks. For 31 individuals with early symptoms of psychosis and 31 healthy volunteers, we examined the numbers of ‘draws to decision’ when information sampling had no, a fixed, or an escalating cost. Computational modelling involved estimating a cost of information sampling parameter and a cognitive noise parameter. Overall patients sampled less information than controls. However, group differences in numbers of draws became less prominent at higher cost trials, where less information was sampled. The attenuation of group difference was not due to floor effects, as in the most costly block participants sampled more information than an ideal Bayesian agent. Computational modelling showed that, in the condition with no objective cost to information sampling, patients attributed higher costs to information sampling than controls (Mann-Whiney U=289, p=0.007), with marginal evidence of differences in noise parameter estimates (t=1.86 df=60, p=0.07). In patients, individual differences in severity of psychotic symptoms were statistically significantly associated with higher cost of information sampling (rho=0.6, p=0.001) but not with more cognitive noise (rho=0.27, p=0.14); in controls cognitive noise predicted aspects of schizotypy (preoccupation and distress associated with delusion-like ideation on the Peters Delusion Inventory). Using a psychological manipulation and computational modelling, we provide evidence that early psychosis patients jump to conclusions because of attributing higher costs to sampling information, not because of being primarily noisy decision makers.
Contributors: Faraglia, Elisa, Marcet, Albert, Scott, Andrew, Oikonomou, Rigas
... Standard optimal Debt Management (DM) models prescribe a dominant role for long bonds and advocate against issuing short bonds. They require very large positions in order to complete markets and assume each period that governments repurchase all outstanding bonds and reissue (r/r) new ones. These features of DM are inconsistent with US data. We introduce incomplete markets via small transaction costs which serves to make optimal DM more closely resemble the data : r/r are negligible, short bond issuance substantial and persistent and short and long bonds positively co-vary. Intuitively long bonds help smooth taxes over states and short bonds over time. Solving incomplete market models with multiple assets is challenging so a further contribution of this paper is introducing a novel computational method to ﬁnd global solutions.
Contributors: Alves, Jose, Gunnarsson, Tomas, Sutherland, William James, Potts, Peter, Gill, Jennifer
... Phenological changes in response to climate change have been recorded in many taxa, but the population-level consequences of these changes are largely unknown. If phenological change influences demography, it may underpin the changes in range size and distribution that have been associated with climate change in many species. Over the last century, Icelandic black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) have increased 10-fold in numbers, and their breeding range has expanded throughout lowland Iceland, but the environmental and demographic drivers of this expansion remain unknown. Here we explore the potential for climate-driven shifts in phenology to influence demography and range expansion. In warmer springs, Icelandic black-tailed godwits lay their clutches earlier, resulting in advances in hatching dates in those years. Early hatching is beneficial as population-wide tracking of marked individuals shows that chick recruitment to the adult population is greater for early hatched individuals. Throughout the last century, this population has expanded into progressively colder breeding areas in which hatch dates are later, but temperatures have increased throughout Iceland since the 1960s. Using these established relationships between temperature, hatching dates and recruitment, we show that these warming trends have the potential to have fuelled substantial increases in recruitment throughout Iceland, and thus to have contributed to local population growth and expansion across the breeding range. The demographic consequences of temperature-mediated phenological changes, such as the advances in lay dates and increased recruitment associated with early hatching reported here, may therefore be key processes in driving population size and range changes in response to climate change.
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Contributors: Lazarus, Micha David Swade
... Near the beginning of the Defence of Rhyme (1603), Samuel Daniel quotes a short precept from Aristotle that has never been traced to a known intermediary.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40319-018-0766-3 - Global Content Protection Through Automation – A Transnational Law Perspective
Contributors: Grosse Ruse-Khan, Henning Majid
... When Phillip Jessup coined the term ‘transnational law’ in the 1950ies, he tried to capture ‘all law which regulates actions or events that transcend national frontiers. Both public and private international law are included, as are other rules which do not wholly fit into such standard categories.’ Within the third category, those ‘other rules’ somewhere in between existing schemas, Jessup specifically included rules emanating from agreements among the parties involved – be it ‘individuals, corporations, states, organizations of states, or other groups’. While he certainly had forms of what we nowadays call ‘private orders’ (like lex mercatoria) in mind, he could not have thought of globally operating online platforms which set their own rules (or ‘community guidelines’), implement them through their codes and user interfaces, and enforce them through algorithms. Nevertheless, I suggest that it is the notion of transnational law which offers a useful lens to look at developments in the protection of intangible assets which are based on norms set by private actors, often have global reach and a form of direct effect not paralleled by any state enforcement machinery. It enables us to identify as law what we otherwise might discard, and in turn puts a spotlight on the effect and (cross-border) implications of (quasi-)legal orders outside traditional paradigms.
Contributors: Zarakol Jajich, Ayse, Zarakol, Ayse
... This article makes two contributions. First, I argue that contrary what is usually assumed in the recognition literature, social hierarchies (as in the master-slave dynamic) are very stable. Though they are relationships of misrecognition, they nevertheless allow for the simulation of recognition and sovereignty for the master, and trap the slave in that role through stigmatisation. Second, I make a historical argument about the state and its role in recognition struggles. The modern state is unique historically in being tasked with solving the recognition problems of its citizens but at the same time it derives its sovereignty from the recognition of those same citizens. There is an inherent tension between these two facts, which forces the modern state to turn increasingly outward for recognition. This is why the master-slave dynamic was increasingly projected onto the international stage from nineteenth century onwards and international recognition has come to play increasingly larger role in state sovereignty. This is also why social hierarchies came to dominate international politics around the same time, along with the norm of sovereign equality.
Do CSF biomarkers and FDG PET imaging show sufficient clinical utility for diagnosis of dementia subtypes?
Contributors: Smailagic, Nadja, Hunter, Sally Elizabeth, Lafortune, Louise, Brayne, Carol Elspeth
... NICE recently published updated recommendations for diagnosing dementia and how people with this clinical syndrome navigate the care system. In this update, major changes from the previous version include the use of emerging diagnostic methods in research. NICE recommendations regarding the use of CSF biomarkers and FDG PET imaging for diagnosing dementia subtypes in specialist clinical setting are based on results from diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) studies identified and included in a systematic review conducted according to Cochrane DTA Handbook guidelines (http://methods.cochrane.org/sdt/handbook-dta-reviews). We have concerns about the way in which the evidence has been translated into practice recommendations.
Contributors: Waterfield, Daniel
... The influence of courtesy literature on Frances Burney’s second novel has been well documented. Yet the question of religion remains overlooked. This essay reasserts both the Anglican nature of Cecilia’s polite behaviour and asserts the Catholicism of the Delvile family. It argues that Cecilia needs to be read against The Gordon Riots of 1780 as a wider critique of the utility of politeness as a social glue. In a romance plot that reflects contemporary legal attempts to reconcile Britons after centuries of religious warfare, Burney ultimately suggests that politeness lacks the vocabulary with which to confront social and economic inequalities.
Contributors: Egan, Caroline Rose, Lennon, Paul Joseph
... This study concerns the representation of colonial Latin American history and the characterisation of Daniel/Hatuey in the 2010 film-about-a-film También la lluvia. A metacinematic work comprising historical study and political commentary, También la lluvia has received mixed critical reactions regarding its portrayal of the historical and social inequalities it analyses. This article examines the ambiguous nature of the work by analysing the motif of conversion. It argues that, by foregrounding the contemporary conversion story of Costa, the film sacrifices both nuanced historical attention to the colonial past it dramatises and sustained development of one of its apparently central characters: Daniel/Hatuey, who is repeatedly converted into narrative and symbolic figures of secondary prominence, despite their importance to the development and legibility of the work as a whole.
Contributors: Liley, Albert James
... Background: High dimensional case control studies are ubiquitous in the biological sciences, particularly genomics. To maximise power while constraining cost and to minimise type-1 error rates, researchers typically seek to replicate ndings in a second experiment on independent cohorts before proceeding with further analyses. This can be an expensive procedure, particularly when control samples are di cult to recruit or ascertain; for example in inter-disease comparisons, or studies on degenerative diseases. Results: This paper presents a method in which control (or case) samples from the discovery cohort are re-used in a replication study. The theoretical implications of this method are discussed and simulated genome-wide association study (GWAS) tests are used to compare performance against the standard approach in a range of circumstances. Using similar methods, a procedure is proposed for `partial replication' using a new independent cohort consisting of only controls. This methods can be used to provide some validation of findings when a full replication procedure is not possible. The new method has differing sensitivity to confounding in study cohorts compared to the standard procedure, which must be considered in its application. Type-1 error rates in these scenarios are analytically and empirically derived, and an online tool for comparing power and error rates is provided. Conclusions: In several common study designs, a shared-control method allows a substantial improvement in power while retaining type-1 error rate control. Although careful consideration must be made of all necessary assumptions, this method can enable more efficient use of data in GWAS and other applications.