5109 results
Contributors: Kennedy, Ryan
Date: 2017-01-31
... This study reports the results of a multiyear program to predict direct executive elections in a variety of countries from globally pooled data.We developed prediction models by means of an election data set covering 86 countries and more than 500 elections, and a separate data set with extensive polling data from 146 election rounds.We also participated in two live forecasting experiments. Our models correctly predicted 80 to 90% of elections in out-of-sample tests. The results suggest that global elections can be successfully modeled and that they are likely to become more predictable as more information becomes available in future elections. The results provide strong evidence for the impact of political institutions and incumbent advantage. They also provide evidence to support contentions about the importance of international linkage and aid. Direct evidence for economic indicators as predictors of election outcomes is relatively weak. The results suggest that, with some adjustments, global polling is a robust predictor of election outcomes, even in developing states. Implications of these findings after the latest U.S. presidential election are discussed.
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Contributors: Bhavnani, Rikhil R., Lee, Alexander
Date: 2017-01-31
... Replication data and code for JoP article.
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Contributors: Sances, Michael, You, Hye Young
Date: 2017-01-31
... Contains .dta files and .do files to replicate all figures and tables in the manuscript and the online appendix.
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Contributors: Maerz, Seraphine F.
Date: 2017-01-31
... Abstract: This paper inquires about authoritarian persistence by applying fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis. As a result of assessing the varying conditions under which authoritarian rule is sustained, I propose five types of persistent authoritarian regimes. This new typology differs from existing classifications of authoritarian regimes in several respects: First, the analysis of 62 autocracies (1991-2010) distinguishes between non-persistent and persistent regimes and categorizes the latter as per their strategies to survive. Second, instead of focusing on one prominent institutional characteristic of a regime as criterion for classification, I look at the combined effects of several factors. Based on the framework of the hexagon as a modified version of Gerschewski’s (2013) three pillars of stability, I study various forms of repression, cooptation and legitimation as the basic principles of lasting authoritarian rule. Lastly, I make use of new and until now hardly applied indicators, providing a novel and multifaceted picture on authoritarian persistence.
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Contributors: Schaner, Simone
Date: 2017-01-29
... This paper uses a field experiment to test whether intrahousehold heterogeneity in discount factors leads to inefficient strategic savings behavior. I gave married couples in rural Kenya the opportunity to open both joint and individual bank accounts at randomly assigned interest rates. I also directly elicited discount factors for all individuals in the experiment. Couples who are well matched on discount factors are less likely to use costly individual accounts and respond robustly to relative rates of return between accounts, while their poorly matched peers do not. Consequently, poorly matched couples forgo significantly more interest earnings on their savings.
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Contributors: Costa, Mia, Johnson, Kaylee T., Schaffner, Brian F.
Date: 2017-01-29
... These are the datasets and program files needed to replicate the results in "Rethinking Representation from a Communal Perspective", Political Behavior, forthcoming.
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Contributors: Karpowitz, Christopher, Monson, J. Quin, Preece, Jessica R.
Date: 2017-01-28
... Women are dramatically underrepresented in legislative bodies, and most scholars agree that the greatest limiting factor is the lack of female candidates (supply). However, voters’ subconscious biases (demand) may also play a role, particularly among conservatives. We designed an original field experiment to test whether it is possible to increase women’s electoral success through political party leaders’ efforts to exogenously shock the supply of female candidates and/or voter demand for female representatives. The key experimental treatments involved messages from a state Republican Party chair to the leaders of 1,842 precinct-level caucus meetings. We find that party leaders’ efforts to stoke both supply and demand (and especially both together) increase the number of women elected as delegates to the statewide nominating convention. We then replicate this finding with a national sample of validated Republican primary election voters (N=2,897) using a vignette survey experiment. Our results suggest that simple interventions from party leaders can affect the behavior of candidates and voters and ultimately lead to a substantial increase in women’s electoral success.
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Contributors: Kazungu, Jacob S., Adetifa, Ifedayo
Date: 2017-01-27
... Africa currently has the lowest childhood vaccination coverage worldwide. If the full benefits of childhood vaccination programmes are to be enjoyed in sub-Saharan Africa, all countries need to improve on delivery of vaccines to achieve and sustain high coverage. In this paper, we reviewed trends in vaccination coverage, dropouts rates and explored the country-specific predictors of a fully immunised child (FIC) in Western Africa. We utilized datasets from Demographic and Health Surveys available for Benin, Burkina Faso, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Cote d’Ivoire, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo to obtain prevalence estimates of vaccination for Bacillus Calmette-Guerin, Polio, Measles and Diphtheria, Pertussis and Tetanus vaccines in children aged 12 – 23 months. We also calculated the DPT1-to-DPT3 and DPT1-to-Measles dropouts, and the proportions of the fully immunised child (FIC). Factors predictive of FIC within each country were explored using Chi-squared tests and multivariable logistic regression models.
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Contributors: Hesselbrock, Andrew J
Date: 2017-01-27
... Computer code and supporting data files to reproduce figures in the manuscript.
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Contributors: Scholtens, Denise
Date: 2017-01-26
... 1000 simulated data sets stored in a list of R dataframes used in support of Reisetter et al. (submitted) 'Mixture model normalization for non-targeted gas chromatography / mass spectrometry metabolomics data'. These are results after normalization using variance stabilizing normalization (Huber et al. 2002).
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