Contributors: Kennedy, Ryan
... This study reports the results of a multiyear program to predict direct executive elections in a variety of countries from globally pooled data.We developed prediction models by means of an election data set covering 86 countries and more than 500 elections, and a separate data set with extensive polling data from 146 election rounds.We also participated in two live forecasting experiments. Our models correctly predicted 80 to 90% of elections in out-of-sample tests. The results suggest that global elections can be successfully modeled and that they are likely to become more predictable as more information becomes available in future elections. The results provide strong evidence for the impact of political institutions and incumbent advantage. They also provide evidence to support contentions about the importance of international linkage and aid. Direct evidence for economic indicators as predictors of election outcomes is relatively weak. The results suggest that, with some adjustments, global polling is a robust predictor of election outcomes, even in developing states. Implications of these findings after the latest U.S. presidential election are discussed.
Contributors: Karpowitz, Christopher, Monson, J. Quin, Preece, Jessica R.
... Women are dramatically underrepresented in legislative bodies, and most scholars agree that the greatest limiting factor is the lack of female candidates (supply). However, voters’ subconscious biases (demand) may also play a role, particularly among conservatives. We designed an original field experiment to test whether it is possible to increase women’s electoral success through political party leaders’ efforts to exogenously shock the supply of female candidates and/or voter demand for female representatives. The key experimental treatments involved messages from a state Republican Party chair to the leaders of 1,842 precinct-level caucus meetings. We find that party leaders’ efforts to stoke both supply and demand (and especially both together) increase the number of women elected as delegates to the statewide nominating convention. We then replicate this finding with a national sample of validated Republican primary election voters (N=2,897) using a vignette survey experiment. Our results suggest that simple interventions from party leaders can affect the behavior of candidates and voters and ultimately lead to a substantial increase in women’s electoral success.
Replication Data for: Crude childhood vaccination coverage in West Africa: trends and predictors of completeness
Contributors: Kazungu, Jacob S., Adetifa, Ifedayo
... Africa currently has the lowest childhood vaccination coverage worldwide. If the full benefits of childhood vaccination programmes are to be enjoyed in sub-Saharan Africa, all countries need to improve on delivery of vaccines to achieve and sustain high coverage. In this paper, we reviewed trends in vaccination coverage, dropouts rates and explored the country-specific predictors of a fully immunised child (FIC) in Western Africa. We utilized datasets from Demographic and Health Surveys available for Benin, Burkina Faso, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Cote d’Ivoire, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo to obtain prevalence estimates of vaccination for Bacillus Calmette-Guerin, Polio, Measles and Diphtheria, Pertussis and Tetanus vaccines in children aged 12 – 23 months. We also calculated the DPT1-to-DPT3 and DPT1-to-Measles dropouts, and the proportions of the fully immunised child (FIC). Factors predictive of FIC within each country were explored using Chi-squared tests and multivariable logistic regression models.
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Contributors: Hesselbrock, Andrew J
... Computer code and supporting data files to reproduce figures in the manuscript.
Contributors: Park, Kyung
... Review of Economics and Statistics: Forthcoming
Contributors: Ainsley, Caitlin
... Contains data and replication code for the empirical results in "The Politics of Central Bank Appointments"
Contributors: Larsen, Martin Vinæs, Hansen, Kasper Møller, Derek Beach
... Based on findings from the literature on campaign effects on the one hand, and the literature on European Parliament elections on the other, we propose a model of European Parliamentary elections in which the campaign shift the calculus of electoral support, making differences in national political allegiances less important and attitudes about the European project more important by informing voters of and getting them interested in European politics. In effect, we argue that the political campaign leading up to the election makes European Parliament elections less second-order. While previous studies have demonstrated that EU attitudes can matter for voting behavior in European Parliament elections, existing research has drawn on post-election surveys that do not enable us to capture campaign effects. Our contribution is to assess the impact of a campaign by utilizing a rolling cross sectional survey (RCS) that enables us to track how voters were affected by the campaign. Our findings show that campaigns do have an effect on European Parliament election outcomes, in that they provide information that enables voters to make decisions based on European issues, making voter decision-making more dominated by EU issue voting.
Contributors: Fuchs-Schuendeln, Nicola
... These are replication files for the document "Einkommensungleichheit und soziale Mobilität", published by the Scientific Advisory Board of the German Ministry of Finance (Wissenschaftlicher Beirat beim Bundesministerium der Finanzen).
Are Voting Norms Conditional? How Electoral Context and Peer Behavior Shape the Social Returns to Voting
Contributors: Dowling, Conor, Doherty, David, Gerber, Alan, Huber, Gregory
... Replication data and code for "Are Voting Norms Conditional? How Electoral Context and Peer Behavior Shape the Social Returns to Voting", Journal of Politics.
Contributors: Monogan, James
... How did anxiety influence voters' decisions in the 2016 presidential election? This study tests the hypothesis that voters who were anxious about their own party's candidate were less likely to vote based on partisanship and more likely to vote based on issue positions and candidate personal qualities. As part of the Election Research Preacceptance Competition 2016, this study has been designed with the 2016 American National Election Study codebook before the data are to be released. Hence, the documentation of this study shows how this analysis of anxiety's conditioning effect on vote choice is to be completed once the data are gathered. Documentation also shows how these data are to be cleaned with a program that cleans similar variables from the 2012 American National Election Study.