Contributors: Kennedy, Ryan
... This study reports the results of a multiyear program to predict direct executive elections in a variety of countries from globally pooled data.We developed prediction models by means of an election data set covering 86 countries and more than 500 elections, and a separate data set with extensive polling data from 146 election rounds.We also participated in two live forecasting experiments. Our models correctly predicted 80 to 90% of elections in out-of-sample tests. The results suggest that global elections can be successfully modeled and that they are likely to become more predictable as more information becomes available in future elections. The results provide strong evidence for the impact of political institutions and incumbent advantage. They also provide evidence to support contentions about the importance of international linkage and aid. Direct evidence for economic indicators as predictors of election outcomes is relatively weak. The results suggest that, with some adjustments, global polling is a robust predictor of election outcomes, even in developing states. Implications of these findings after the latest U.S. presidential election are discussed.
Contributors: Karpowitz, Christopher, Monson, J. Quin, Preece, Jessica R.
... Women are dramatically underrepresented in legislative bodies, and most scholars agree that the greatest limiting factor is the lack of female candidates (supply). However, voters’ subconscious biases (demand) may also play a role, particularly among conservatives. We designed an original field experiment to test whether it is possible to increase women’s electoral success through political party leaders’ efforts to exogenously shock the supply of female candidates and/or voter demand for female representatives. The key experimental treatments involved messages from a state Republican Party chair to the leaders of 1,842 precinct-level caucus meetings. We find that party leaders’ efforts to stoke both supply and demand (and especially both together) increase the number of women elected as delegates to the statewide nominating convention. We then replicate this finding with a national sample of validated Republican primary election voters (N=2,897) using a vignette survey experiment. Our results suggest that simple interventions from party leaders can affect the behavior of candidates and voters and ultimately lead to a substantial increase in women’s electoral success.
Contributors: Hesselbrock, Andrew J
... Computer code and supporting data files to reproduce figures in the manuscript.
Top results from Data Repository sources. Show only results like these.
Contributors: Park, Kyung
... Review of Economics and Statistics: Forthcoming
Contributors: Monogan, James
... How did anxiety influence voters' decisions in the 2016 presidential election? This study tests the hypothesis that voters who were anxious about their own party's candidate were less likely to vote based on partisanship and more likely to vote based on issue positions and candidate personal qualities. As part of the Election Research Preacceptance Competition 2016, this study has been designed with the 2016 American National Election Study codebook before the data are to be released. Hence, the documentation of this study shows how this analysis of anxiety's conditioning effect on vote choice is to be completed once the data are gathered. Documentation also shows how these data are to be cleaned with a program that cleans similar variables from the 2012 American National Election Study.
Radiocarbon dates, sedimentology, and pollen counts from the late Holocene sediments of Oblong Tarn, Mount Kenya
Contributors: Courtney Mustaphi, Colin, Gajewski, Konrad, Marchant, Rob, Rosqvist, Gunhild
... Cores of the sediments from Oblong Tarn, Mount Kenya, were collected in 1983 and 1986, and were conventional radiocarbon dated to examine late Holocene glacier history of the mountain. Subsequently pollen samples were taken from both cores to create a composite pollen record.
Contributors: Indridason, Indridi, Williams, Brian
... The legislative agenda in most parliamentary systems is controlled tightly by the government and bills offered by individual members of parliament have low rates of success. Yet, MPs do seek to present (private) members’ bills even where the rate of adoption is very low. We argue that members’ bills serve as an electoral connection but also as an opportunity for MPs to signal competence to their co-partisans. To demonstrate the presence of an electoral connection we take advantage of the random selection of private members’ bills in the New Zealand House of Representatives and show that survey respondents approve more of electorate MPs whose bills were drawn on the ballot. In addition, we show that MPs respond to the incentives created by the voters and parties’ willingness to reward legislative effort and, consequently, that electorally vulnerable legislators are more likely to place members’ bills on the ballot.
Contributors: Boston College. Center for Retirement Research
... To see if attitudes are changing about the potential for using one's home to cover living expenses in retirement, the Center for Retirement Research commissioned a survey that examined the house as a potential source of retirement income. Harris Interactive® conducted the study online within the United States between January 24 and February 2, 2007 among 2,673 adults (aged 50-65). Figures for age, sex, race, education, household income, and region were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. The questionnaire, results, and raw data from both surveys are available.
... Archive containing all V5 Layers in ESRI Shapefile format. Please select either GBK or UTF8 encoded versions. For more information about this data please see: http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~chgis/data/chgis/downloads/v5/about/
Contributors: Ding, Lin, Souza
... This entry include the PDF of the published papers and the codes used for producing the results and tables for this article. Note that the data used is the CMS Medicare HEDIS data from 2003 to 2012 and 2007 Medicare Enrollment and claims files for the 20% sample. this data is available from CMS through ResDAC (http://www.resdac.org/cms-data/request/research-identifiable-files) and it's not free