2026-10-12T03:41:19Z https://data.mendeley.com/oai

oai:data.mendeley.com/sc3bb2ptky.1 2025-10-21T15:50:38Z

Jin, Keojin Assessing Domestic Forest Capacity for Cross-Laminated Timber in Korean Urban Housing: A Resource Adequacy Framework (2025–2052) Mendeley Data RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS: This study tests whether Korea's domestic forests can adequately support cross-laminated timber (CLT) adoption in apartment construction through 2050, given constraints from forest accessibility, sustainability requirements, and processing capacity. WHAT THE DATA SHOWS: 26-year projections (2025-2050) of CLT demand and supply for Korean apartment construction under multiple scenarios. Key findings: (1) Annual apartment demand of 200-460k units driven by replacement cycles despite demographic decline; (2) CLT requirements of 0.32-4.39 million m³/year under three adoption scenarios (15%/35%/50% ceilings); (3) Domestic supply potential of 0.26-0.93 million m³/year; (4) Self-sufficiency ranging from 18% (accelerated adoption) to 110% (conservative adoption); (5) Cumulative carbon mitigation of 31-187 Mt CO₂ by 2050. NOTABLE FINDINGS: Forest accessibility is the most restrictive constraint, reducing theoretical harvest from 16.4 million m³/year to <1 million m³/year. Moderate adoption (35% ceiling) achieves 37% self-sufficiency with 93.5 Mt CO₂ mitigation. Import dependence is inevitable for medium-to-high adoption pathways. DATA CONTENTS: Five primary tables with annual values (2025-2050): - Table A1: CLT demand by adoption scenario (Conservative/Moderate/Accelerated) - Table A2: CLT supply under resource constraints (Low/Medium/High) - Table A3: Self-sufficiency ratios (supply/demand) - Table B1: Annual carbon mitigation - Table B2: Cumulative carbon benefits HOW DATA WAS GATHERED: Demand: Based on Statistics Korea (2023) demographic projections and 35-year apartment replacement cycles. CLT volumes calculated from 105 m² average floor area × 0.15 m³/m² structural intensity. Supply: Sequential constraints applied to Korea Forest Service (2023) national forest inventory: species suitability (69%), age-class (77%), sustainability (80% of increment), accessibility (12.5%→18.5%), processing efficiency (30%→38%). Adoption scenarios: Logistic S-curves converging to policy-realistic ceilings by late 2030s, consistent with international CLT diffusion patterns. Carbon: Biogenic storage (0.9 tCO₂/m³) + substitution effects (1.5 tCO₂/m³) from Korean species studies and international LCA. HOW TO INTERPRET: Units: Volume (m³), Carbon (tCO₂), Percentages (%). Self-sufficiency >100% = surplus, <100% = import required. All projections use 2025 baseline. Results support scenario planning for import strategies, forest management priorities, and adoption incentives. REPLICATION & EXTENSION: Framework transferable to other countries with aging forests and apartment-dominated housing. Parameters adjustable for alternative demographic/policy scenarios. Enables cross-country comparisons of resource adequacy. DATA SOURCES: Statistics Korea (2023) Population Projections; Korea Forest Service (2023) Statistical Yearbook; Land and Housing Research Institute (2025) Housing Demand Analysis; MOLIT (2023) Housing Statistics; Author calculations. Architecture Dataset doi:10.17632/sc3bb2ptky.1 oai:data.mendeley.com/sc3bb2ptky.1 Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/sc3bb2ptky 2025-10-21T15:50:38Z