2026-10-15T09:16:34Z https://data.mendeley.com/oai

oai:data.mendeley.com/zt55zy2vzj.1 2026-07-21T10:12:14Z

Baba, Umut Ergunsu-Yang. Why the models missed the surge Mendeley Data Replication package for "Why the models missed the surge: decomposing the forecast failure in China's electric heavy-truck transition, 2021–2026." Contains all analysis code (Python, pinned environment), the assembled monthly data panels with registry-basis and provenance tags (new-energy and LNG heavy-truck registrations, chained diesel and LNG price series, IEA GEVO 2026 anchors), a consolidated parameter-extraction audit record for the forecasting baselines, a primary-source verification record with URLs, and reference outputs with SHA256 checksums. Running run_all.py reproduces every table and figure in the manuscript deterministically (fixed seed), including the calibrated fleet cost-sensitivity (lambda = 1.66 per CNY/km) and the 32-run Shapley decomposition of the 2025 forecast wedge. All underlying statistics are from public sources cited in the documentation. Energy Economics Road Transportation Electric Vehicles Dataset doi:10.17632/zt55zy2vzj.1 oai:data.mendeley.com/zt55zy2vzj.1 Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/zt55zy2vzj 2026-07-21T10:12:14Z