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This study reports the results of a multiyear program to predict direct executive elections in a variety of countries from globally pooled data.We developed prediction models by means of an election data set covering 86 countries and more than 500 elections, and a separate data set with extensive polling data from 146 election rounds.We also participated in two live forecasting experiments. Our models correctly predicted 80 to 90% of elections in out-of-sample tests. The results suggest that global elections can be successfully modeled and that they are likely to become more predictable as more information becomes available in future elections. The results provide strong evidence for the impact of political institutions and incumbent advantage. They also provide evidence to support contentions about the importance of international linkage and aid. Direct evidence for economic indicators as predictors of election outcomes is relatively weak. The results suggest that, with some adjustments, global polling is a robust predictor of election outcomes, even in developing states. Implications of these findings after the latest U.S. presidential election are discussed.
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Contains data and replication code for the empirical results in "The Politics of Central Bank Appointments"
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Replication data, do files, and logs for Peaceful Dispute Resolution by Authoritarian Regimes, Foreign Policy Analysis
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These files provide the data used in the paper cited below. The work was funded by the National Science Foundation through Major Research Instrumentation Award 1337512 "Acquisition of Mesoscale Network of Surface Sensors and Solar-tracking Spectrometers", PI: Steven C. Wofsy, CO-I: Jia Chen.
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How did anxiety influence voters' decisions in the 2016 presidential election? This study tests the hypothesis that voters who were anxious about their own party's candidate were less likely to vote based on partisanship and more likely to vote based on issue positions and candidate personal qualities. As part of the Election Research Preacceptance Competition 2016, this study has been designed with the 2016 American National Election Study codebook before the data are to be released. Hence, the documentation of this study shows how this analysis of anxiety's conditioning effect on vote choice is to be completed once the data are gathered. Documentation also shows how these data are to be cleaned with a program that cleans similar variables from the 2012 American National Election Study.
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The LFS is a twice-yearly rotating panel household survey, specifically designed to measure the dynamics of employment and unemployment in the country. It also provides insight into a variety of issues related to the labour market, including unemployment rates (official and expanded), according to standard definitions of the International Labour Organisation (ILO). There are 4 data files. House data: 28,594 cases; Migrant data: 8 245 cases; Person data: 109,888 cases; Worker data: 73,797 cases.
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Cores of the sediments from Oblong Tarn, Mount Kenya, were collected in 1983 and 1986, and were conventional radiocarbon dated to examine late Holocene glacier history of the mountain. Subsequently pollen samples were taken from both cores to create a composite pollen record.
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The Labour Force Survey is a twice-yearly rotating panel household survey, specifically designed to measure the dynamics of employment and unemployment in the country. It plans to measure a variety of issues related to the labour market, including unemployment rates (official and expanded), according to standard definitions of the International Labour Organisation (ILO). 5 data files. Person data: 98,748; Workers data: 67,836; Migrant data: 6,248 cases; House data: 26,835 cases; Stratpsu (Stratum and PSU numbers) data: 2,699 cases;
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The IES is a five-yearly household survey based on the sample for the rotating panel of the twice yearly Labour force Survey (LFS). It measures the detailed income and expenditure of households. The survey was done by means of an interview with the household head or a responsible adult and the questionnaire was completed by the enumerator during this interview. In cases where the household requested to complete the questionnaire themselves, it was dropped off by the enumerator, and the completed questionnaire was collected at a second visit. There are 4 data files. General data: no cases; Home Grown Products (Part 22): 31, 302 cases; Person data (from flap, part 2404): 104, 153 cases; Worker (domestic) data (from part 4): 2, 701.
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The legislative agenda in most parliamentary systems is controlled tightly by the government and bills offered by individual members of parliament have low rates of success. Yet, MPs do seek to present (private) members’ bills even where the rate of adoption is very low. We argue that members’ bills serve as an electoral connection but also as an opportunity for MPs to signal competence to their co-partisans. To demonstrate the presence of an electoral connection we take advantage of the random selection of private members’ bills in the New Zealand House of Representatives and show that survey respondents approve more of electorate MPs whose bills were drawn on the ballot. In addition, we show that MPs respond to the incentives created by the voters and parties’ willingness to reward legislative effort and, consequently, that electorally vulnerable legislators are more likely to place members’ bills on the ballot.
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