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This study reports the results of a multiyear program to predict direct executive elections in a variety of countries from globally pooled data.We developed prediction models by means of an election data set covering 86 countries and more than 500 elections, and a separate data set with extensive polling data from 146 election rounds.We also participated in two live forecasting experiments. Our models correctly predicted 80 to 90% of elections in out-of-sample tests. The results suggest that global elections can be successfully modeled and that they are likely to become more predictable as more information becomes available in future elections. The results provide strong evidence for the impact of political institutions and incumbent advantage. They also provide evidence to support contentions about the importance of international linkage and aid. Direct evidence for economic indicators as predictors of election outcomes is relatively weak. The results suggest that, with some adjustments, global polling is a robust predictor of election outcomes, even in developing states. Implications of these findings after the latest U.S. presidential election are discussed.
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Abstract: This paper inquires about authoritarian persistence by applying fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis. As a result of assessing the varying conditions under which authoritarian rule is sustained, I propose five types of persistent authoritarian regimes. This new typology differs from existing classifications of authoritarian regimes in several respects: First, the analysis of 62 autocracies (1991-2010) distinguishes between non-persistent and persistent regimes and categorizes the latter as per their strategies to survive. Second, instead of focusing on one prominent institutional characteristic of a regime as criterion for classification, I look at the combined effects of several factors. Based on the framework of the hexagon as a modified version of Gerschewski’s (2013) three pillars of stability, I study various forms of repression, cooptation and legitimation as the basic principles of lasting authoritarian rule. Lastly, I make use of new and until now hardly applied indicators, providing a novel and multifaceted picture on authoritarian persistence.
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These data were collected in summer 2011 as part of project investigating clergy political attitudes in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
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Recommender systems have made significant utility in daily routing life. Social Networking Sites and Friends connection are very important part of life. It may help for business intelligence, innovation or building new team. It is an online platform that is used by people to build social networks or social relations with other people who share similar personal or career interests, activities, backgrounds or real-life connections. Now days, people want to do beyond the box and always demand for something extra ordinary. Social networking sites are varied and they incorporate a range new information and communication tools such as availability on desktop and laptops, mobile devices such as tablet computers and smart phones, digital photo/video/sharing. The main types of social networking services are those that contain category places (such as former school year or classmates), means to connect with friends (usually with self-description pages), and a recommendation system linked to trust. The objective behind this project is to explore the lifestyle of user from their daily activity and transactions of user and recommend more relevant and useful friend suggestions beyond their thinking. This project work proposed to develop a unique solution to derive most relevant friend suggestions as per user input and recommend more connected friend group or social activity club from same. The complete project will interlinked data mining concept with latest user issue to refine most optimum solution. Java Technology will be used to develop and evaluate the same.
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as in today’s world, time is playing a crucial role while developing the applications. Reusing something will definitely increase the productivity of the application that is needed to be developed. Reusing existing components not only save the time but also the efforts made by the development team and also the use of environment and other resources. It also helps us to reduce the cost of the product. In this paper, we have implemented a project which takes input as a object oriented code and helps us to identify whether the some part or whole code is reusable or not.
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This paper uses a field experiment to test whether intrahousehold heterogeneity in discount factors leads to inefficient strategic savings behavior. I gave married couples in rural Kenya the opportunity to open both joint and individual bank accounts at randomly assigned interest rates. I also directly elicited discount factors for all individuals in the experiment. Couples who are well matched on discount factors are less likely to use costly individual accounts and respond robustly to relative rates of return between accounts, while their poorly matched peers do not. Consequently, poorly matched couples forgo significantly more interest earnings on their savings.
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The process of sending data in a vulnerable network such thing damage or errors that occur due to several factors such as noise, interference or also tissue factor unfavorable, Go-Back-N is a method of mechanisms controlling this error referred as Automatic Repeat Request (ARQ) , Effects ARQ is to change the data path that is not reliably reliable, the processes analyzed by Go-Back-N form of the transmission time of the frame, when the transmission/reply, propagation speed (slow, medium or fast), the time interval 'timeout' on timekeeper source and the number of frames to be transmitted.
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The “community-based development” approach may empower citizens and improve outcomes through three mechanisms: (1) an immediate direct effect of engaging citizens to decide how to allocate resources within the community-based development program, (2) an indirect effect on community organization that improves citizen engagement with other local institutions, and (3) an indirect effect on community organization that improves representation within centralized government structures. Using a randomized evaluation of a nongovernmental-organization-led CBD program in Ghana, we examine whether community-based development results in citizens’ empowerment to improve their socioeconomic well-being through these mechanisms. We find that the leadership training and experiences associated with community-based development translate into higher perceived quality of village leaders, but they simultaneously decrease contributions to collective projects outside the context of the community-based development program. In addition, although the process encourages more people to run for district-level office and results in more professional political representation, it does not increase aggregate levels of government investment in communities. Ultimately, we find that although the program led to changes in village-level and district-level leadership, it did not increase investment in public goods and did not improve socio-economic outcomes.
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Women are dramatically underrepresented in legislative bodies, and most scholars agree that the greatest limiting factor is the lack of female candidates (supply). However, voters’ subconscious biases (demand) may also play a role, particularly among conservatives. We designed an original field experiment to test whether it is possible to increase women’s electoral success through political party leaders’ efforts to exogenously shock the supply of female candidates and/or voter demand for female representatives. The key experimental treatments involved messages from a state Republican Party chair to the leaders of 1,842 precinct-level caucus meetings. We find that party leaders’ efforts to stoke both supply and demand (and especially both together) increase the number of women elected as delegates to the statewide nominating convention. We then replicate this finding with a national sample of validated Republican primary election voters (N=2,897) using a vignette survey experiment. Our results suggest that simple interventions from party leaders can affect the behavior of candidates and voters and ultimately lead to a substantial increase in women’s electoral success.
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This document contains replication material and supplementary analyses for "Citizenship Regimes and the Politicization of Immigrant Groups"
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