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Do minority voters respond to co-racial or co-ethnic candidates? That is does the increased chance of substantive representation translate into increased participation? Here, we focus on this question among African American voters. While much of the empirical literature on this question has produced conflicting answers, recent studies suggest that minority candidates can significantly increase minority turnout. We argue that past work on this topic does not adequately account for the fact that minority voters in places with minority candidates may systematically differ in their level of participation than minority voters in places without minority candidates. In this study we address the weakness of previous research designs and offer a new design that exploits the redistricting process to gain additional leverage over this question. The redistricting process allows us to correctly model the selection process and ensure that voters who were moved to districts with African American candidates through the redistricting process are comparable to voters that remained in existing districts with white candidates. We find little evidence that African American voter turnout increases when voters are moved to African America candidates. We find some evidence that white voters, however, tend to vote at lower rates when they are represented by African American candidates.
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This study reports the results of a multiyear program to predict direct executive elections in a variety of countries from globally pooled data.We developed prediction models by means of an election data set covering 86 countries and more than 500 elections, and a separate data set with extensive polling data from 146 election rounds.We also participated in two live forecasting experiments. Our models correctly predicted 80 to 90% of elections in out-of-sample tests. The results suggest that global elections can be successfully modeled and that they are likely to become more predictable as more information becomes available in future elections. The results provide strong evidence for the impact of political institutions and incumbent advantage. They also provide evidence to support contentions about the importance of international linkage and aid. Direct evidence for economic indicators as predictors of election outcomes is relatively weak. The results suggest that, with some adjustments, global polling is a robust predictor of election outcomes, even in developing states. Implications of these findings after the latest U.S. presidential election are discussed.
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Replication data and code for JoP article.
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Contains .dta files and .do files to replicate all figures and tables in the manuscript and the online appendix.
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Abstract: This paper inquires about authoritarian persistence by applying fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis. As a result of assessing the varying conditions under which authoritarian rule is sustained, I propose five types of persistent authoritarian regimes. This new typology differs from existing classifications of authoritarian regimes in several respects: First, the analysis of 62 autocracies (1991-2010) distinguishes between non-persistent and persistent regimes and categorizes the latter as per their strategies to survive. Second, instead of focusing on one prominent institutional characteristic of a regime as criterion for classification, I look at the combined effects of several factors. Based on the framework of the hexagon as a modified version of Gerschewski’s (2013) three pillars of stability, I study various forms of repression, cooptation and legitimation as the basic principles of lasting authoritarian rule. Lastly, I make use of new and until now hardly applied indicators, providing a novel and multifaceted picture on authoritarian persistence.
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This data set includes: (a) a query file (Q.txt), (b) the queried data set (A.txt). and (c) the corresponding MapDB data store generated by LSHDB. Q was extracted from the NCVR list. Each record of Q was perturbed, using four (edit, delete, insert) operations in order to generate set A.
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This paper uses a field experiment to test whether intrahousehold heterogeneity in discount factors leads to inefficient strategic savings behavior. I gave married couples in rural Kenya the opportunity to open both joint and individual bank accounts at randomly assigned interest rates. I also directly elicited discount factors for all individuals in the experiment. Couples who are well matched on discount factors are less likely to use costly individual accounts and respond robustly to relative rates of return between accounts, while their poorly matched peers do not. Consequently, poorly matched couples forgo significantly more interest earnings on their savings.
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These are the datasets and program files needed to replicate the results in "Rethinking Representation from a Communal Perspective", Political Behavior, forthcoming.
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The “community-based development” approach may empower citizens and improve outcomes through three mechanisms: (1) an immediate direct effect of engaging citizens to decide how to allocate resources within the community-based development program, (2) an indirect effect on community organization that improves citizen engagement with other local institutions, and (3) an indirect effect on community organization that improves representation within centralized government structures. Using a randomized evaluation of a nongovernmental-organization-led CBD program in Ghana, we examine whether community-based development results in citizens’ empowerment to improve their socioeconomic well-being through these mechanisms. We find that the leadership training and experiences associated with community-based development translate into higher perceived quality of village leaders, but they simultaneously decrease contributions to collective projects outside the context of the community-based development program. In addition, although the process encourages more people to run for district-level office and results in more professional political representation, it does not increase aggregate levels of government investment in communities. Ultimately, we find that although the program led to changes in village-level and district-level leadership, it did not increase investment in public goods and did not improve socio-economic outcomes.
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Women are dramatically underrepresented in legislative bodies, and most scholars agree that the greatest limiting factor is the lack of female candidates (supply). However, voters’ subconscious biases (demand) may also play a role, particularly among conservatives. We designed an original field experiment to test whether it is possible to increase women’s electoral success through political party leaders’ efforts to exogenously shock the supply of female candidates and/or voter demand for female representatives. The key experimental treatments involved messages from a state Republican Party chair to the leaders of 1,842 precinct-level caucus meetings. We find that party leaders’ efforts to stoke both supply and demand (and especially both together) increase the number of women elected as delegates to the statewide nominating convention. We then replicate this finding with a national sample of validated Republican primary election voters (N=2,897) using a vignette survey experiment. Our results suggest that simple interventions from party leaders can affect the behavior of candidates and voters and ultimately lead to a substantial increase in women’s electoral success.
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  • Software/Code
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  • Text