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This study reports the results of a multiyear program to predict direct executive elections in a variety of countries from globally pooled data.We developed prediction models by means of an election data set covering 86 countries and more than 500 elections, and a separate data set with extensive polling data from 146 election rounds.We also participated in two live forecasting experiments. Our models correctly predicted 80 to 90% of elections in out-of-sample tests. The results suggest that global elections can be successfully modeled and that they are likely to become more predictable as more information becomes available in future elections. The results provide strong evidence for the impact of political institutions and incumbent advantage. They also provide evidence to support contentions about the importance of international linkage and aid. Direct evidence for economic indicators as predictors of election outcomes is relatively weak. The results suggest that, with some adjustments, global polling is a robust predictor of election outcomes, even in developing states. Implications of these findings after the latest U.S. presidential election are discussed.
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This data set includes: (a) a query file (Q.txt), (b) the queried data set (A.txt). and (c) the corresponding MapDB data store generated by LSHDB. Q was extracted from the NCVR list. Each record of Q was perturbed, using four (edit, delete, insert) operations in order to generate set A.
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Moment maps of M33 from the HI mosaic observed with the VLA in C-configuration. The data have a resolution of ~19 arcsec, corresponding to a physical resolution of ~80 pc (assuming a distance of 840 kpc).
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Women are dramatically underrepresented in legislative bodies, and most scholars agree that the greatest limiting factor is the lack of female candidates (supply). However, voters’ subconscious biases (demand) may also play a role, particularly among conservatives. We designed an original field experiment to test whether it is possible to increase women’s electoral success through political party leaders’ efforts to exogenously shock the supply of female candidates and/or voter demand for female representatives. The key experimental treatments involved messages from a state Republican Party chair to the leaders of 1,842 precinct-level caucus meetings. We find that party leaders’ efforts to stoke both supply and demand (and especially both together) increase the number of women elected as delegates to the statewide nominating convention. We then replicate this finding with a national sample of validated Republican primary election voters (N=2,897) using a vignette survey experiment. Our results suggest that simple interventions from party leaders can affect the behavior of candidates and voters and ultimately lead to a substantial increase in women’s electoral success.
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Africa currently has the lowest childhood vaccination coverage worldwide. If the full benefits of childhood vaccination programmes are to be enjoyed in sub-Saharan Africa, all countries need to improve on delivery of vaccines to achieve and sustain high coverage. In this paper, we reviewed trends in vaccination coverage, dropouts rates and explored the country-specific predictors of a fully immunised child (FIC) in Western Africa. We utilized datasets from Demographic and Health Surveys available for Benin, Burkina Faso, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Cote d’Ivoire, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo to obtain prevalence estimates of vaccination for Bacillus Calmette-Guerin, Polio, Measles and Diphtheria, Pertussis and Tetanus vaccines in children aged 12 – 23 months. We also calculated the DPT1-to-DPT3 and DPT1-to-Measles dropouts, and the proportions of the fully immunised child (FIC). Factors predictive of FIC within each country were explored using Chi-squared tests and multivariable logistic regression models.
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Computer code and supporting data files to reproduce figures in the manuscript.
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Immersive stereoscopic footage of a Coordinate Response Measure (CRM) recorded from two actors. The audio-visual recorded corpus consists of 8 CALLs and 32 COMMANDs per actor. The CALLs and COMMANDs are to be combined at rendering time into full sentences that always follow the same structure: “ready CALL go to COMMAND now ”. The COMMANDs consists of one in four colors (blue, green, red or white) followed by one in eight numbers (1 to 8). This generates a full combinatorial of 256 individual sentences when combined with one of the 8 CALLS (arrow, baron, charlie, eagle, hopper, laker, ringo, tiger). Additionally the dataset also includes the UV positions to texturize the semi-spheres at the rendering time. These have been calculated from the intrinsic and extrinsic calibration parameters of the cameras to facilitate the correct rendering of the video footage. Our system for recording the actors consists of a custom wide-angle stereo camera system made of two Grasshopper 3 cameras with fisheye Fujinon lenses (2.7mm focal length) reaching 185 degrees of Field of View (FoV). The cameras were mounted parallel to each other and separated by 65 mm distance (average human interpupillary distance39) to provide stereoscopic capturing. The video is encoded in H264 format reaching 28-30 frames per second encoding speed at 1600x1080 resolution per camera/eye. The audio was recorded through a near range microphone at a 44kHz sampling rate and 99kbps and both the audio and video are synchronized within 10ms range and saved in mp4 format. The recording room was equipped for professional recording with monobloc LED lighting and chromakey screen. The actor sat at 1 meter distance from the camera recording setup and read the corpus sentences when presented on the screen behind the cameras. The actors were recorded separately in two sessions, seating each at 30 degrees from the bisection, and their videos can be synthetically attached at the rendering time. In the post processing the audio was equalized for all words, and the video was stitched to combine the actors and generate the full the corpus. Sentences were band passed at 80Hz to 16kHz. The corpus sentences are temporally aligned within the range of 64ms in our case, which is below the described 200ms to be perceived. So two or more CRMs can be played synchronously generating an overlap.
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Review of Economics and Statistics: Forthcoming
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Contains data and replication code for the empirical results in "The Politics of Central Bank Appointments"
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Based on findings from the literature on campaign effects on the one hand, and the literature on European Parliament elections on the other, we propose a model of European Parliamentary elections in which the campaign shift the calculus of electoral support, making differences in national political allegiances less important and attitudes about the European project more important by informing voters of and getting them interested in European politics. In effect, we argue that the political campaign leading up to the election makes European Parliament elections less second-order. While previous studies have demonstrated that EU attitudes can matter for voting behavior in European Parliament elections, existing research has drawn on post-election surveys that do not enable us to capture campaign effects. Our contribution is to assess the impact of a campaign by utilizing a rolling cross sectional survey (RCS) that enables us to track how voters were affected by the campaign. Our findings show that campaigns do have an effect on European Parliament election outcomes, in that they provide information that enables voters to make decisions based on European issues, making voter decision-making more dominated by EU issue voting.
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  • Software/Code
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  • Text