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Do minority voters respond to co-racial or co-ethnic candidates? That is does the increased chance of substantive representation translate into increased participation? Here, we focus on this question among African American voters. While much of the empirical literature on this question has produced conflicting answers, recent studies suggest that minority candidates can significantly increase minority turnout. We argue that past work on this topic does not adequately account for the fact that minority voters in places with minority candidates may systematically differ in their level of participation than minority voters in places without minority candidates. In this study we address the weakness of previous research designs and offer a new design that exploits the redistricting process to gain additional leverage over this question. The redistricting process allows us to correctly model the selection process and ensure that voters who were moved to districts with African American candidates through the redistricting process are comparable to voters that remained in existing districts with white candidates. We find little evidence that African American voter turnout increases when voters are moved to African America candidates. We find some evidence that white voters, however, tend to vote at lower rates when they are represented by African American candidates.
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This study reports the results of a multiyear program to predict direct executive elections in a variety of countries from globally pooled data.We developed prediction models by means of an election data set covering 86 countries and more than 500 elections, and a separate data set with extensive polling data from 146 election rounds.We also participated in two live forecasting experiments. Our models correctly predicted 80 to 90% of elections in out-of-sample tests. The results suggest that global elections can be successfully modeled and that they are likely to become more predictable as more information becomes available in future elections. The results provide strong evidence for the impact of political institutions and incumbent advantage. They also provide evidence to support contentions about the importance of international linkage and aid. Direct evidence for economic indicators as predictors of election outcomes is relatively weak. The results suggest that, with some adjustments, global polling is a robust predictor of election outcomes, even in developing states. Implications of these findings after the latest U.S. presidential election are discussed.
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This data set includes: (a) a query file (Q.txt), (b) the queried data set (A.txt). and (c) the corresponding MapDB data store generated by LSHDB. Q was extracted from the NCVR list. Each record of Q was perturbed, using four (edit, delete, insert) operations in order to generate set A.
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This paper uses a field experiment to test whether intrahousehold heterogeneity in discount factors leads to inefficient strategic savings behavior. I gave married couples in rural Kenya the opportunity to open both joint and individual bank accounts at randomly assigned interest rates. I also directly elicited discount factors for all individuals in the experiment. Couples who are well matched on discount factors are less likely to use costly individual accounts and respond robustly to relative rates of return between accounts, while their poorly matched peers do not. Consequently, poorly matched couples forgo significantly more interest earnings on their savings.
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The “community-based development” approach may empower citizens and improve outcomes through three mechanisms: (1) an immediate direct effect of engaging citizens to decide how to allocate resources within the community-based development program, (2) an indirect effect on community organization that improves citizen engagement with other local institutions, and (3) an indirect effect on community organization that improves representation within centralized government structures. Using a randomized evaluation of a nongovernmental-organization-led CBD program in Ghana, we examine whether community-based development results in citizens’ empowerment to improve their socioeconomic well-being through these mechanisms. We find that the leadership training and experiences associated with community-based development translate into higher perceived quality of village leaders, but they simultaneously decrease contributions to collective projects outside the context of the community-based development program. In addition, although the process encourages more people to run for district-level office and results in more professional political representation, it does not increase aggregate levels of government investment in communities. Ultimately, we find that although the program led to changes in village-level and district-level leadership, it did not increase investment in public goods and did not improve socio-economic outcomes.
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This is the supplementary material (revised version) of DCLN paper published in proceedings of IJCNN 2015. The original source is available at "https://sourceforge.net/projects/dcln/".
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This study contains CORONA satellite images that were used to identify sites and landscape features in northeastern Syria and adjacent regions. Most prominently, they are the source for the maps of sites and premodern trackways that appear in Ur, J. A. in press. Urbanism and Cultural Landscapes in Northeastern Syria: The Tell Hamoukar Survey, 1999-2001. Oriental Institute Publications 139. Chicago: University of Chicago Oriental Institute. All images are in Erdas Imagine (.img) format and are in the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) projection (Zone 37 north) using the WGS 1984 datum. For more information on the processing and interpretation of these CORONA scenes, see the above monograph.
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Contains data and replication code for the empirical results in "The Politics of Central Bank Appointments"
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Replication data, do files, and logs for Peaceful Dispute Resolution by Authoritarian Regimes, Foreign Policy Analysis
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November 2016 county-level election returns for president, Senate, US House, and governor elections in each state.
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