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Recent advances in artificial intelligence and robotics have generated a robust debate about the future of work. An analogous debate occurred in the late nineteenth century when mechanization first transformed manufacturing. We analyze an extraordinary dataset from the late nineteenth century, the Hand and Machine Labor study carried out by the US Department of Labor in the mid-1890s. We focus on transitions at the task level from hand to machine production, and on the impact of inanimate power, especially of steam power, on labor productivity. Our analysis sheds light on the ability of modern task-based models to account for the effects of historical mechanization.
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A set of software tools for privacy preserving record linkage. anonlink A library for carrying out the low level hash comparisons required server side. Available from github at http://github.com/n1analytics/anonlink/ entity-service Server side component of private record linkage REST api utilizing the anonlink library. clkhash A client utility and library for turning personally identifiable information into bloom filter hashes. Available from github at https://github.com/n1analytics/clkhash/ encoding-service A REST api wrapper around clkhash for encoding PII data into CLKs. Available from github at https://github.com/n1analytics/encoding-service/
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This paper examines foreign exchange intervention based on novel daily data covering 33 countries from 1995 to 2011. We find that intervention is widely used and an effective policy tool, with a success rate in excess of 80 percent under some criteria. The policy works well in terms of smoothing the path of exchange rates, and in stabilizing the exchange rate in countries with narrow band regimes. Moving the level of the exchange rate in flexible regimes requires that some conditions are met, including the use of large volumes and that intervention is made public and supported via communication.
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A standard response of both policy-makers and private citizens to hardships—from natural disasters to mass shootings—is to offer “thoughts and prayers.” Critics argue that such gestures are meaningless and may obstruct structural reforms intended to mitigate catastrophes. In this study, we elicit the value of receiving thoughts and prayers from strangers following adversity. We find that Christians value thoughts and prayers from religious strangers and priests, while atheists and agnostics are “prayer averse”—willing to pay to avoid receiving prayers. Further, while indifferent to receiving thoughts from other secular people, they negatively value thoughts from Christians.
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We estimate the increasing health care needs of American inmates by combining data on inmate demographics and national health trends. Decades of harsh punishment combined with demographic shifts have led to a "greying" prison population that is a source of concern for policymakers. Our estimates reveal that inmate health care needs are significant and growing beyond what is predicted by their age profile. While the fraction of inmates aged 40 or more increased by 49 percent between 1996 and 2004, the prevalence of medical conditions such as diabetes, hypertension, asthma, and cancer among inmates grew between 177 and 268 percent.
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The National Surveys on Energy and Environment (NSEE), a core activity in CLOSUP's Energy and Environmental Policy Initiative, reflects a formal partnership between the Muhlenberg Institute of Public Opinion at Muhlenberg College and the Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy at the University of Michigan's Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy. NSEE surveys include twice per year national opinion surveys on issues directly related to climate change and energy policy, as well as other surveys conducted on a range of topics such as hydraulic fracturing ("fracking"), the Great Lakes, and wider issues of energy and environment. NSEE is co-directed by professor Barry Rabe at the University of Michigan, and professor Christopher Borick at Muhlenberg College. For more information on the collaboration between the University of Michigan and Muhlenberg College, please see the recent article from Muhlenberg Magazine. For more information about the NSEE, contact CLOSUP staff at 734-647-4091 or closup@umich.edu. From 2008-2012 the survey was called the ⿿National Survey of American Public Opinion on Climate Change⿝ (NSAPOOC); starting in 2013 the survey was renamed to the ⿿National Surveys on Energy and Environment⿝ (NSEE). The NSEE is committed to transparency in all facets of our work, including timely release and posting of data from each survey wave. A grant from the Office of the Provost at the University of Michigan has allowed us to provide online access to earlier waves of the NSEE, including frequency tables, survey instruments, and datasets. Users can see a list of topics covered by the NSEE, and search for questions by text, variable name, or variable category on CLOSUP's website. Although the datasets are listed by survey wave, the NSEE is a valuable source of longitudinal public-opinion data on climate change and energy policy. Many questions have been asked over multiple waves, including questions about belief in global warming that have been asked in every wave of the NSEE. Consult the NSEE Crosswalk to see which questions have been asked in prior and subsequent waves of the NSEE. To facilitate longitudinal analysis, the NSEE datasets use a longitudinal variable naming scheme to facilitate longitudinal analysis. Variable names include two parts: a subject category for the question, and a description of the contents of the question. When a question has been asked with the same text and response options over multiple waves, the same variable name will be used in each dataset. For more information on the longitudinal naming scheme users should consult the codebooks for the datasets.
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This research compares the effects of two classroom-based technology-enhanced teaching interventions, conducted in two schools in sixth (age 11-12) grade. In one school, the intervention involves the use of a class set of 3D Printing Pens, and in another school the use of dynamic geometry environments, for inquiry-based learning of three-dimensional geometry.
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This paper examines how teachers unions affect teachers’ well-being under various legal institutions. Using a district-teacher matched dataset, this study identifies the union effects by three approaches. First, I contrast teacher outcomes across different state laws towards unions. Second, I compare the union-nonunion differentials within the same legal environment, using multilevel models and propensity score matching. Finally, unexpected legal changes restricting the collective bargaining of teachers in four states form a natural experiment, allowing me to use the difference-in-difference estimation to identify the causal effect of weakening unionism on teacher outcomes. I find that i) many teachers join unions even when bargaining is rarely or never available, and meet-and-confer or union membership rate affects teachers’ lives in the absence of a bargaining contract, ii) how unions influence teacher outcomes vary greatly by different legal environment, iii) the changes in public policy limiting teachers’ bargaining rights significantly decrease teacher compensation.
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Data, syntax, and supplemental materials for Only Half of What I’ll Tell You is True: How Experimental Procedures Lead to an Underestimation of the Truth Effect, a manuscript currently under review.
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This project contains the programs, data, and README file for "Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?" American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.
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