Public Transport Expansion and Demand for Vehicle Licenses in Singapore
The research investigates if the demand for vehicle licenses in Singapore which is availed via bimonthly auctions in defined categories catering to cars and motorcycles has been influenced by two extensions of public transportation: (1) Increase in track length of the Rapid Transit System comprising MRT and LRT and (2) Bus Service Enhancement Programme wherein the government provided $1b between 2012 and 2017 to increase the fleet size by 1,000 (about +20%) , open up new routes and improve general standards. All the data were collected from public sources e.g. (1) https://www.singstat.gov.sg/find-data/search-by-theme/population/population-and-population-structure/latest-data (2) https://data.gov.sg/dataset/rail-length (3) https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ltaweb/en/publications-and-research.html The regression model applied in the 4 vehicle categories was: BidRatio ~ a0 + a1*SpilloverRate + a2*lnCOEQuota + a3*lnCOEPremium + a4*RTSLength + a5*BSEPdummy where BidRatio is the ratio of bids to quota in each auction and which is further adjusted for population growth versus base year=2002. SpilloverRate is the ratio of unsuccessful bids in the preceding auction to the current quota and which is further adjusted for population growth versus base year=2002. lnCOEQuota is the logged quota of licenses in each auction. Log transformation is applied in view of wide quota variability. lnCOEPremium is the logged premium or uniform price arrived at in each auction. Log transformation is applied in view of wide premium variability. RTSLength is the sum of the MRT and LRT track lengths at the end of each year. An alternative is the number of RTS stations. Regression findings results would have remained the same. BSEPdummy is defined as 0 prior to Sep 2012 and 1 thereafter with the progressive addition of 1,000 new buses to open up new routes and improve service standards. Any statistical software can be used for the regression analyses. The author used StatsTools. Findings: The regression analyses indicate that the increase in RTS track length corelated with a decrease in the demand for car and motorcycle licenses while BSEP only cut down the demand for motorcycle licenses.
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All the data were collected from public sources. Links are provided