Uncontrolled Reentries over Antarctica 2005-2025
Description
This dataset supports the research presented in "Uncontrolled Reentries over Antarctica: Governance Gaps, Polar Vulnerabilities, and Implications for Human Security." The study investigates the growing occurrence of uncontrolled atmospheric reentries over the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) and examines their potential implications for Antarctic governance, environmental protection, scientific activities, and human security. The central hypothesis is that the increasing frequency of uncontrolled reentries represents an emerging governance challenge that has not yet been adequately addressed through existing cooperation mechanisms between the Antarctic Treaty System and the international space governance regime. The dataset integrates three complementary geospatial databases: (1) historical uncontrolled atmospheric reentry events obtained from Space-Track.org, including the estimated atmospheric reentry location (latitude and longitude), Decay Epoch (UTC), object identification, object type, country of origin, and associated metadata; (2) Antarctic research facilities compiled from publicly available COMNAP information and National Antarctic Programs; and (3) Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs) derived from the official Antarctic Treaty System database. All datasets were harmonized into a common geographic reference system (WGS84; EPSG:4326) to enable reproducible Geographic Information System (GIS) analyses. Spatial analyses performed using these datasets demonstrate that more than 400 uncontrolled atmospheric reentries occurred over the Antarctic region between 2005 and 2025, affecting areas where scientific infrastructure, environmentally protected sites, and operational activities coexist. The dataset enables users to identify spatial relationships between historical reentry events, Antarctic facilities, and protected areas, supporting quantitative assessments of potential exposure, proximity analyses, and regional distribution patterns. The dataset is intended to support research in space sustainability, Antarctic governance, environmental security, space situational awareness, and international relations. It may also be used for geospatial visualization, historical trend analysis, risk assessment, environmental monitoring, and policy-oriented studies concerning the interaction between outer space activities and the Antarctic Treaty System. Users should note that the geographic coordinates associated with each reentry event represent the estimated atmospheric reentry location provided by Space-Track Tracking and Impact Prediction (TIP) products. They do not represent confirmed ground impact locations or recovered debris sites. Consequently, the dataset should be interpreted as a historical record of estimated atmospheric reentry events suitable for spatial and governance analyses rather than as a catalogue of confirmed impact locations.
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Steps to reproduce
This dataset was developed through the integration of publicly available geospatial datasets related to historical uncontrolled atmospheric reentries over the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS). The objective was to generate a standardized spatial database suitable for analyzing historical reentry events in relation to Antarctic infrastructure and environmentally protected areas. Historical atmospheric reentry data were obtained from Space-Track.org, the official orbital data repository maintained by the United States Space Command (USSPACECOM). Reentry records were extracted from the Tracking and Impact Prediction (TIP) products and historical decay information available through the Space-Track database. For each event, the estimated atmospheric reentry latitude, longitude, Decay Epoch (UTC), NORAD Catalog ID, object name, object type, country of origin, and associated metadata were compiled. According to Space-Track documentation, the latitude and longitude provided in TIP messages represent the predicted location where the object reaches approximately 10 km altitude during atmospheric descent, rather than the confirmed ground impact location. Likewise, the Decay Epoch corresponds to the predicted time at which the object reaches this atmospheric reentry location. The Antarctic facilities dataset was compiled from publicly available information provided by the Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs (COMNAP) and supplemented, where necessary, with information published by individual National Antarctic Programs to verify station names, operators, operational status, seasonality, and geographic coordinates. The Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs) dataset was generated using the official Antarctic Treaty System ASPA database. Geographic coordinates, ASPA numbers, official names, designation criteria, and protected area information were standardized into a unified geospatial dataset. All datasets were harmonized using the WGS84 geographic coordinate reference system (EPSG:4326). Data processing included attribute standardization, duplicate removal, coordinate validation, normalization of temporal variables, and consistency checks across all datasets. Spatial quality control and visualization were performed using ArcGIS Online Map Viewer (Esri). The final datasets were exported in UTF-8 encoded CSV format to ensure interoperability with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and reproducible spatial analyses. Software ArcGIS Online Map Viewer (Esri) Microsoft Excel (data cleaning and normalization) Geographic Coordinate System: WGS84 (EPSG:4326) CSV (UTF-8) Disclaimer: This dataset is intended for historical geospatial analyses of uncontrolled atmospheric reentry events and should not be interpreted as a catalogue of confirmed ground impact locations or recovered debris.
Institutions
- Universidad de Santiago de ChileSantiago Metropolitan, Santiago
Categories
Funders
- GCSPGrant ID: Innovation Prize 2024