Integrating Grey forecasting and Window data envelopment analysis approach to evaluate and predict logistics performance in Vietnam's third-party freight transportation and last-mile delivery
Description
Logistics has become a crucial component of Vietnam's economy, contributing 4.5% to the Gross Domestic Product. The sector has experienced significant growth due to the expansion of e-commerce and Vietnam's emergence as a global manufacturing hub. However, it faces challenges in maintaining efficiency and adopting sustainable practices, particularly during disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This study forecasts logistics performance and assesses the efficiency of third-party freight transportation and last-mile delivery (3PLs) in Vietnam from 2019 to 2027. It focuses on three key phases: the pre-pandemic period, the recovery phase, and future projections. The goal is to provide actionable insights to enhance efficiency and sustainability within the sector. To assess performance changes over time, a hybrid methodology is employed, which combines Grey Forecasting and Window Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). This approach analyzes input and output variables, including financial metrics from 12 leading logistics companies in Vietnam. The findings reveal efficiency trends across critical periods, highlight the impacts of cost management, investment, and operational management on performance, and identify areas for improvement, offering a comprehensive framework to guide sustainable logistics development in Vietnam