The impact of innovation policies in scientometric indicators through the combination of Punctuated Equilibrium Theory and Synthetic Control Method

Published: 24 June 2024| Version 1 | DOI: 10.17632/6mdfy2g6wg.1


The study considers the policies and budgetary review of the Brazilian innovation policies to suggest two significant punctuations from 1995-2023. Supported by Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), the analysis reveals an expansion phase from 2007 to 2014, followed by a retraction period from 2015 to 2023. To assess the impact of these policy changes, the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) is applied to measure the quantity and quality of documents published by Brazilian authors in the Web of Science database. Overall, the results confirm the expected effects on scientometric indicators: positive impacts during the expansion phase and negative impacts during the retraction phase. The paper with the detailed description of the methods and results is in submission phase.


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This work is divided in two parts: the first is related to Punctuation Equilibrium Theory (PET), and the second is related to Synthetic Control Methods (SCM). For the identification of the punctuations and stability periods in the Brazilian innovation policies, data form the countries expenditure in STI was collected from the Coordination of Science and Technology Indicators (COICT) of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI) [COICT.xlsx]. This data was deflated by 2020’s IPCA Index provided by IBGE [IPCA2020 deflation.xlsx]. Then the global spending on research and development (R&D) from 1996 to 2022 (in billion PPP U.S. dollars) was collected from Statista and log transformed to be compared to the Brazilian spending [Log variations of global and BR spending in R&D.xlsx]. To define the punctuations, both series were compared using the method proposed by Clemente, Montañés, Reyes (1998) in Stata []. This identified two punctuations (2006 and 2014), which resulted in three stability periods: CONS (1995-2006), EXP (2007-2014), and RET (2015-2023). A single factor analysis of variance was conducted according to Silvestre and Araújo, (2015), to confirm that each period was sufficiently different to each other. The yearly national scientific output of each country was extracted from the Web of Science through the Incites database [database.xlsx.]. Then the SCM was calculated on Stata, according to Abadie and Cattaneo (2018), with leave-one-out and placebo tests to assess the robustness of the results []. The paper with the detailed description of the methods and results is in submission phase. REFERENCES Abadie, Alberto, and Matias D. Cattaneo. “Econometric Methods for Program Evaluation.” Annual Review of Economics 10, no. 1 (August 2, 2018): 465–503. Clemente, J., Montanes, A., Reyes, M., 1998. Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean. Economics Letters 59, 175-182. Jones, B.D., Epp, D.A., Baumgartner, F.R., 2019. Democracy, Authoritarianism, and Policy Punctuations. International review of public policy. Silvestre, H.C., Araújo, J.F.F.E.D., 2015. Teoria do Equilíbrio Pontuado nas Políticas Públicas Brasileiras: O Caso do Ceará. Rev. adm. contemp. 19, 696–711.


Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul


Econometrics, Policy Evaluation, Innovation Policy, Causal Inference, Scientometrics


Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior


Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico