Combined climate change and dispersal capacity positively affect Hoplobatrachus chinensis occupancy of agricultural wetlands
Description
Global warming is one of the major factors contributing to the decline and extinction of amphibian populations worldwide, and modeling can help understand the mechanisms and trends of its effects. Here, we used MaxEnt and MigClim models to predict the impact of future climate change on habitat suitability for Hoplobatrachus chinensis, a species of anuran widespread in natural and modified landscapes across eastern Indomalaya, under different climate change scenarios and dispersal patterns. We also calculated the overlap in suitable habitat between natural habitat and agricultural wetlands for the species. While the distribution of many anurans is primarily influenced by precipitation levels, our results indicate that temperature is a key environmental variable affecting the distribution of H. chinensis. Under current and future climate change scenarios, we found a positive correlation between increasing temperatures and habitat suitability for H. chinensis, with the suitable habitat for the species expanding northward by 2060, while maintaining southern habitat suitability. Comparing unlimited and limited dispersal modes, our model supported the ability of H. chinensis to track shifts in suitable habitats under climate change scenarios, given a 15 km dispersal ability per generation. Finally, we demonstrated that there is only a 25.18% overlap between current potential suitable habitats of H. chinensis and agricultural wetlands. In conclusion, our results suggest that climate change will have a positive impact on the expansion of suitable habitat for H. chinensis, even given their limited dispersal capacity. Our predictions offer important guidance for the conservation of H. chinensis, especially the integrated role of natural and agricultural wetlands, such as rice paddy fields.