External Uncertainty, Balance-Sheet Vulnerability, and Stock Volatility: Evidence from Macau Gaming Firms
Description
This replication package accompanies manuscript ECMODE-D-26-00260R1, “External Uncertainty, Balance-Sheet Vulnerability, and Stock Volatility: Evidence from Macau Gaming Firms.” It contains the Python analysis code, the final derived disclosure-date analysis panel, public EPU inputs, result tables, figures, software-environment files, SHA-256 checksums, and a table-and-figure mapping. The package reproduces the second-round threshold inference, wild-bootstrap checks, directional regime estimates, and related robustness outputs. Licensed raw market-price histories and issuer-level source files are not redistributed. The relevant restrictions, sources, and data-construction procedures are documented in README.md and DATA_LICENSES.md.
Files
Steps to reproduce
1. Download the published ZIP archive and extract it. 2. Open a terminal in the extracted top-level directory. 3. Install the required Python packages: python -m pip install -r requirements.txt Alternatively, create the supplied Conda environment: conda env create -f environment.yml conda activate macau-gaming-replication-v2 4. Run the complete analysis: ./run_replication.sh The script constructs the analysis panels, estimates rolling generalized-FEVD VAR spillovers, performs the financial-statement analyses, machine-learning diagnostics, robustness checks, and bootstrap threshold tests, and writes the tables and figures. 5. Check the reproduced outputs: python verify_results.py The primary sample contains 23,705 firm-day observations. The formal threshold analyses use 22,490 complete observations and 999 bootstrap replications. Reproduced files are written to analysis/data/processed, analysis/results, and analysis/reports.
Institutions
- Macau University of Science and TechnologyMacau, Macao