Relationship between El Niño-La Niña cycle and cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in Colombia, 2007 - 2021

Description

Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a public health problem in Colombia and is considered by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a neglected tropical disease (NTD). On the other hand, the El Niño-La Niña cycle causes great climate variability every certain number of years. Furthermore, it is known that climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity impact the life cycles of vectors, and it has been seen that these variables can modify the behavior of human populations. Thus, the study of the relationship between climatological phenomena and the epidemiological behavior of a disease of importance in Public Health, such as cutaneous leishmaniasis in Colombia, contributes to improving knowledge of the human-natural system interrelation in our country. Considering all of the above, the research project "Estimation of the relationship between the El Niño-La Niña cycle and the occurrence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Colombia during the period 2007-2021" was proposed. This project aims to estimate the existing association between the El Niño-La Niña cycle and the occurrence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Colombia during the period 2007-2021. It is an ecological study of time series from secondary sources. The cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis were obtained from the Colombian Public Health System (SIVIGILA), and the environmental data from the NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Colombian Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM). All cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis reported in Colombian municipalities with a minimum altitude of less than 1700 meters above sea level were included.

Steps to reproduce

The cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) were obtained from SIVIGILA. The database has 23 variables. CodeDANE is the code of each Colombian municipality; year (from 2007 to 2021); month (from 1 to 12, 1 is January and 12 is December); Period (from 1 to 180, 1 is January/2007 and 180 is December/2021); SST3 is the sea surface temperature in the Niño 3 region; SST4 is the sea surface temperature in the Niño 4 region; SST34 is the sea surface temperature in the Niño 3-4 region; SST12 is the sea surface temperature in the Niño 1-2 region; Esoi is the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index; soi is the Southern Oscillation Index; NATL is the sea surface temperature in the north Atlantic; SATL is the sea surface temperature in the south Atlantic; TROP is the sea surface temperature in the tropical region; minmasl is the minimum altitude of the municipality (in meters above sea level); casesobserved is the number of CL cases reported to SIVIGILA, casesexpected is the expected number of CL cases (population*average national incidence rate), rateobservedexpected is a rate of observed and expected cases (observed CL cases/expected CL cases), excess of cases defined by a rate of observed and expected cases >1 (excess of cases in the same month; 0=no, 1=yes); excess_plus1 (excess of cases with one month lag; 0=no, 1=yes); excess_plus2 (excess of cases with two months lag; 0=no, 1=yes); excess_plus3 (excess of cases with three months lag; 0=no, 1=yes); excess_plus4 (excess of cases with four months lag; 0=no, 1=yes); phenomenon2 is the phenomenon defined by at least two agencies (Neutro=0; La Niña=1, El Niño=2).

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