Prediction of climatic changes on the ecological niche of Myracrodruon urundeuva in Brazil
Myracrodruon urundeuva is a native timber species and has great potential for commercial use in Brazil, especially in the Pantanal, Savannah and Caatinga regions, where native species are explored. In this study, distribution of M. urundeuva was predicted, based on the region of natural occurrence of the species. Coordinates of the species were obtained from online databases - CRIA and SpecialLinks, as well as from scientific articles and fieldwork conducted by UNESP located in Ilha Solteira. Therefore, ecological niche modeling was used, with current layers of climatic variables and layers prepared for future climate scenarios, according to the 4th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR4 / IPCC), using Worldclim data on Brazil. Using Open Modeller and ArcGIS programs, prediction maps of their occurrence were generated for the current period and for future climate scenarios according to global climate change projects. With projected increases in temperature and rainfall in the area where the species occurs, M. urundeuva tends to migrate to areas of Brazil where the climate is currently milder in the south and southeast. Due to climate change, the species tends to undergo changes in area distribution and size by 2080. In both periods Caatinga and Pantanal were projected to increase in area, while for the Cerrado in the first period the area increased and for the second, it decreased. In scenario B1, large population size loss is projected in Caatinga and Pantanal.