A knowledge elicitation study to inform the development of a consequence model for Arctic ship evacuations: qualitative and quantitative data
A two-phased mixed methods design was employed to elicit expert knowledge to inform the development of a life-safety consequence model for Arctic ship evacuations. Semi-structured interviews elicited perspectives on the factors that influence the expected numbers of fatalities during a ship evacuation in Arctic waters. Interviews were held and recorded over video-conference. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using thematic analysis. Interview data informed the development of an online survey, in which evacuation scenarios were rated for the level of life-safety consequence severity they pose. Sixteen experts in the field of Arctic seafaring, policy, and academia and research participated in the interviews and survey. The interview guide and survey questions are presented. Data tables present the codes that emerged through thematic analysis, including code reference counts and code intersection counts. The most frequently referenced codes and code intersections informed the development of the evacuation scenarios defined in the online survey. Data tables present the raw data of participant responses to the rating survey. The authors used this data to develop a conceptual framework of the factors that influence the potential for loss of life resulting from a ship evacuation in the Arctic and quantify consequence severities for different Arctic ship evacuation scenarios. This data can support further investigation of factors that influence consequence severity, definition of a broader range of evacuation scenarios, and establishment of associated consequence severities. This data has value to those with interest in Arctic maritime policy and operational risk management.
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A two-phased mixed methods design was used to elicit expert knowledge to investigate the factors that influence the potential for loss of life and evaluate the consequence severity level resulting from ship evacuations in Arctic waters. In Phase 1, semi-structured interviews were conducted to identify the factors that influence the potential for loss of life during a ship evacuation in Arctic waters. A survey was developed based on the results of the interviews. In Phase 2, experts rated the level of life-safety consequence severity posed by defined ship types and evacuation scenarios. Life-safety consequence severity is measured as the expected number of fatalities resulting from an evacuation. Interviews were held over videoconference with the audio and video recorded using Cisco Webex video-conference software. The audio recordings were transcribed verbatim. Interview transcriptions were analyzed using thematic analysis. QSR Nvivo 1.3 qualitative analysis software was employed for analysis. Interview transcripts were first coded. Segments of text were categorized to a given code that captures the meaning of what was said by the participant. Some codes were established a priori while other codes emerged over the course of the analysis. The same segment of text can fit multiple codes and is referred to as a code intersection. The results of the thematic analysis informed the development of the Phase 2 survey. The survey was organized in two blocks, A and B. The survey was administered using Qualtrix online survey software. Block A: Participants first rated risk factors for their level of influence on response time, evacuee survivability, and the potential for loss of life following an evacuation. The level of influence was evaluated using a five-point Likert scale from ‘Extreme’ to ‘No influence’. Participants also rated different ship types for the likelihood of loss of life to occur should an evacuation take place. Likelihood was evaluated using a five-point Likert scale from ‘Extremely likely’ to ‘Not likely at all’. Block B: Participants then rated nineteen evacuation scenarios based on the perceived level of life-safety consequence severity they pose. The factors and associated levels used to define the scenarios are presented in Table 10. Five ship types with associated POB numbers were evaluated for each scenario. Life-safety consequence severity was evaluated using the five-point severity scale recommended in the International Maritime Organization guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment.