Gold and Silver- Spot and Futures Price
Description
The purpose of this study was to look at the cointegration, spillover impact, and lead-lag connection for returns across spot price and the futures price of products gold and silver. Everyday spot and futures prices of Gold and Silver, which were heavily exchanged on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) throughout 2019-2020, were used to compile the data for this study. The return series are considered for testing the spillover effect between the series through GARCH (1,1) Model. The series are checked for stationarity before using the GARCH (1,1) model. The ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller) test was used to examine the return series' stationarity. The Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests were used to validating the cointegration and lead-lag connection between futures and spot pricing for chosen bullion commodities after the return series was confirmed stationary. The analysis helps to achieve the following Hypotheses: H01: There is no stationarity in the dataset for the chosen bullion commodities. H02: Cointegration between futures and spot prices is not present in the market for the chosen bullion commodities. H03: The futures price is not influenced by the spot price for the chosen bullion commodities. H04: The Spot price is not influenced by the Futures price for the chosen bullion commodities The finding provides a new view of the series cointegration, lead-lag, and spillover effect. The spot and futures prices of gold and silver are considered for price discovery. It tells derivatives traders that gold and silver are preferable assets for hedgers and speculators to diversify their portfolios.