Modeling the Effects of Vaccinations and Policy Responses on COVID-19 Cases

Published: 26 July 2021| Version 1 | DOI: 10.17632/gvpcsbpskf.1


The study is targeted at assessing whether there is significant difference in total daily COVID-19 cases following vaccinations and adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) taking into account the variation across countries from January 01, 2020 to April 25, 2021. The data were obtained from Our World in Data (owid). Both ordinary least squares regression model and least squares dummy variable model were entertained and the findings revealed that failure to account for variation across the countries could mask the patterns in measuring the effects of vaccinations and nonpharmaceutical interventions on total daily COVID-19 cases across the countries. Further evidence showed nonpharmaceutical interventions could cause significant difference in total daily COVID-19 cases while vaccinations could not lead to any tangible reduction. The data can further be reused by applying time series intervention analyses to evaluate the impacts of different control measures for COVID-19 pandemic.



Medicine, Epidemiology, Infectious Disease, Biostatistics, Medical Statistics