Scenarios for fleet, vehicular activity and emission in the Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo

Published: 10-08-2020| Version 1 | DOI: 10.17632/hgby6y2v3z.1
Flavia Ribeiro,
Arissa Umezaki


The data comprises estimations on the evolution of the fleet, emission factors, autonomy, vehicular activity and total emission in the Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo for the years of 2028 and 2038 regarding road transportation. Fleet, emission factors, autonomy and activity are segragated by type of vehicle (light-duty, commercial light-duty, motorcycle, micro bus, urban bus, road bus, light-truck, semilight-truck, medium-truck, semiheavy-truck, heavy-truck), by age of vehicle (from 0 to 4), and by fuel (gasoline, ethanol, flex-fuel, diesel, lng). Emission factors are also segregated by pollutant or greenhouse gas. Vehicular anthropogenic heat was also estimated. Evolution of the fleet showed increase, except for buses. Total emissions are segregated by vehicle type, fuel and pollutant or greehouse gas. Several scenarios were tested, applying modifications on vehicular activity or percentage of fuel. Decrease in light-duty activity and the use of ethanol from sugar cane in light-duty vehicles have the greater potential for reducing emissions. Combining the scenarios is the best option in reducing emissions.


Steps to reproduce

The calculations were entirely based on the data recorded by the Environmental Agency of the State of São Paulo -CETESB (, access: 7 Aug 2020) for the year of 2017. The active fleet is estimated from a regression applied on the data recorded by CETESB (2018) from 2006 to 2017. Emission factors and autonomy are evolved repeating the values of the previous year. To create the scenarios, factors were applied to vehicular activity and on the division of the fleet by fuel.