Spatiotemporal patterns of intense tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific over the past 1600 years

Published: 27 November 2023| Version 1 | DOI: 10.17632/hw5tz7x22z.1
Liang Zhou


Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected to become more frequent and powerful in warming climates. However, the long-term alterations in spatiotemporal patterns across different latitudes of the Western North Pacific (WNP) remain unclear. Here, we present a 1600-year activity record of paleo-TCs in the Li’an Lagoon, located in the southeastern Hainan Island, South China Sea. We quantified the timing of paleo-TCs over centennial to millennial time scales, on the basis of multiproxy analysis (XRF geochemical element scanning and grain size analysis) and precisely dating methods (210Pb and AMS 14C dating). Base on a compilation of basin-wide paleo-TC records, we found there exist a clearly seesaw pattern of intense TC frequency between low and middle latitude. Comparison with global and regional climate proxies, we suggest that the basin-wide latitudinal TC activity in the WNP can be linked to migration of Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and its associated high-latitude forcings (e.g., NAO) and low-latitude internal variability forcings (i.e., El Niño and Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature (SST)). More intense TC will occur at low latitudes in the future, though with less frequency.



Jiangsu Normal University


Sedimentary Environment, Paleoclimate, Marine Geology