Population estimates by ethnic group: UK local government districts mid-years 2001-11

Published: 18-04-2019| Version 1 | DOI: 10.17632/j3k55pmmsz.1
Contributors:
Paul Norman,
Phil Rees,
Stephen Clarke,
Pia Wohland,
Nik Lomax

Description

These are estimates of ethnic populations in local authority districts (LADs) in the UK for the years between the 2001 & 2011 Censuses. Information on ethnic populations by age and gender is provided in censuses. In between censuses, information on ethnic population change is scarce. To fill the gap we used data from the two censuses with reconciled total population and component estimates published by the Office of National Statistics. This work outlines the sequence of steps used to produce a ten-year time series. These reconciled population estimates provide a firmer foundation for ethnic-specific projections than hitherto available. The role of the census in this work is vital Geographic detail The file rows cover all 389 LADs in the UK. The codes are linked to LAD Names, plus countries and Government Office Regions. Demographic detail The file columns specify gender: M for Male or F for Female There are 101 single years of age from 0 to 100+ for each gender Ethnic group abbreviations are expanded below Method used to produce the estimates The method is specified in Rees et al. (2017). The estimates include linear interpolation between 2001 and 2011 Census populations by ethnicity and single year of age, adjusted (‘constrained’) to agree with ONS/NRS/NISRA post-2011 census revised populations for LADs (without ethnicity). Caveats The constraint of our initial estimates to the official mid-year estimates suppresses growth in minority groups which is otherwise evident in the data (and indeed in our unconstrained projections post 2011 see https://www.ethpop.org/). For one ethnic group, the White Other (which includes EU migrants, especially those from the EU8 accession countries of eastern Europe), the linear model is unsatisfactory. From 2004 to 2008 there was a very large influx of such immigrants into the UK of more than a million people in just 2004-05. When we did the estimation work in 2016 we did not (have time to) find a suitable method to build in this knowledge, so the linear interpolation of the WHO group disguises slower growth MY2001 to MY2004, higher growth MY2004 to MY2008 and lower growth MY2008 to MY2011 (due to the Global Financial Recession). Reference Rees P, Clark S, Wohland P, Lomax N & Norman P (2017) Using the 2001 and 2011 Censuses to reconcile ethnic group estimates and components for the intervening decade. Chapter 21 in Stillwell, J (ed.) The Routledge Handbook of Census Resources, Methods and Applications: 277-293 Abbreviation Ethnic group description WBI White: British, Irish, Gypsy, Irish Traveller WHO White: Other White MIX Mixed or Multiple Ethnic Groups IND Asian or Asian British: Indian PAK Asian or Asian British: Pakistani BAN Asian or Asian British: Bangladeshi CHI Asian or Asian British: Chinese OAS Asian or Asian British: Other Asian BLA Black or Black British: African BLC Black or Black British: Black Caribbean OBL Black or Black British: Other OTH Other Ethnic Group

Files

Steps to reproduce

Please see the book chapter on this work: Rees P, Clark S, Wohland P, Lomax N & Norman P (2017) Using the 2001 and 2011 Censuses to reconcile ethnic group estimates and components for the intervening decade. Chapter 21 in Stillwell, J (ed.) The Routledge Handbook of Census Resources, Methods and Applications: 277-293