NVDA_INTC_ POSTURE ANALYSIS_V2
Description
This version adds updated coder-level and firm-level datasets incorporating the VIX variable (X₄) for each time period. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) represents market-wide uncertainty and is used in the regression models as both a main effect and a moderator in the Strategic Posture × Volatility interaction (H₁₂). New or updated files include: Coder_A_wi.xlsx, Coder_B_with.xlsx, Coder_C_with.xlsx, Coder_D_with.xlsx: Updated raw coder ratings files with VIX values added to support X₁ × X₄ analysis. Coders_ABC_SP_and_Avg_FINAL.xlsx: Composite scores including Strategic Posture (X₁) and integrated VIX (X₄) column per year. NVDA_INTC_with.xlsx: Final master panel dataset for regression, containing X₁, X₂, X₃, and new X₄ (VIX) for both firms. These additions support the full testing of all three hypotheses in the study, particularly H₁₂ regarding the moderating role of market volatility.
Files
Steps to reproduce
Select Target Firms Identify two representative technology firms for longitudinal strategic analysis. This study focuses on NVIDIA (NVDA) and Intel (INTC) due to their prominence in the semiconductor industry and availability of consistent public data from 2015 to 2023. Adopt Strategic Evaluation Framework Use the Optimal Strategic Performance Position (OSPP) model developed by Kipley et al. (2012), grounded in Ansoff’s Strategic Success Paradigm. The framework evaluates firms across three alignment dimensions: Environmental Turbulence Level (ETL) Strategic Aggressiveness (SA) Capabilities Responsiveness (CR) Design and Distribute Coder Instrument Create a standardized 65-item behavioral coding instrument, grouped across the three dimensions above. Coders rate each item on a 5-point anchored scale based on observable strategic behavior. Train Coders and Collect Data Four coders (A–D) independently evaluated each firm over 9 years (2015–2023). Coders worked blind to study hypotheses and financial outcomes. Coder D (the author) was excluded from inter-rater reliability. Calculate Strategic Posture Scores (X₁) For each firm-year, calculate composite Strategic Posture (X₁) by integrating coder ratings and misalignment gap coefficients based on the OSPP logic. Integrate Analyst Ratings (X₂) and Stock Returns (X₃) Retrieve analyst consensus ratings (X₂) and monthly stock return data (X₃) from Bloomberg for each firm-year. Ratings use a standardized 1–5 scale; returns are expressed as monthly % changes. Market Volatility (VIX) Variable (X₄) Introduce VIX (X₄) as a fourth variable to capture market-wide volatility. The VIX is collected monthly from CBOE and averaged or standardized for integration with firm-level panels. Compile Final Panel Dataset Merge Strategic Posture scores (X₁), Analyst Ratings (X₂), Stock Returns (X₃), and Market Volatility (X₄) into a master dataset for regression analysis. Test Hypotheses via Panel Regression Use fixed-effects regression models to test the predictive power of Strategic Posture, its interaction with VIX (X₁ × X₄), and its divergence from Analyst Ratings.