Dataset of the consequences of the 2020 crisis for the global economic system’s balance and the specifics of developing countries’ recession

Published: 12 November 2020| Version 1 | DOI: 10.17632/kjk9thmh2r.1
Contributors:
Yuri N. Lascencov,
Dmitry J. Denisov,
Dmitry A. Kamynin,
Anastasia N. Mylnikova,
Anton V. Kravchenko

Description

To create a dataset, basic and alternative data were collected on the impact of the 2020 crisis on the economy for 38 developed and 20 developing countries. The baseline data is taken from the latest report from the International Monetary Fund and includes statistics on GDP, investment, average consumer price inflation, exports and imports of goods and services, unemployment rates, net government lending / borrowing, structural balance of government budget, and gross government debt for 2000-2019 and forecast for 2020-2025. Alternative data represent the results of a sociological survey conducted by the OECD in 2020 and revealed the share of small and medium-sized businesses significantly affected by the COVID-19 crisis in the first half of 2020 and expecting a significant deterioration in their situation in the second half of 2020. into a general Microsoft Excel document and are logically organized into tabs. The uniqueness and value of the dataset lies in the fact that it combines the basic data of official statistics and alternative data from opinion polls and expert assessments. Due to this, the dataset demonstrates both the impact of the crisis on the economy reflected in the statistics and the actually perceived (felt) impact of the crisis on the economy. This allows the dataset to be used as an empirical basis for crisis management in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and crisis and in the post-pandemic period (at least until 2022). Using the developed author's methodology, the integral index of economic recession in the context of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 was calculated.The index was obtained using deep data processing and made it possible to accurately determine the scale of the crisis in 2020.Dataset is a ready-made and convenient database for studying the experience of the economic crisis 2020 in developed and developing countries, identifying their features and similarities. A dataset is especially useful for conducting research with a focus on developing countries, since the data for countries in this category are sufficiently detailed and collected in one place, which opens up ample opportunities for various scientific research based on the dataset.

Files

Steps to reproduce

In a dataset, data is combined into a common Microsoft Excel document and is logically divided into tabs. The second tab contains a selection of official statistics (baseline updated annually) from the most recent report (October 2020) by the International Monetary Fund. They include statistics on GDP, investment volume, average consumer price inflation, exports and imports of goods and services, unemployment rate, net government lending / borrowing, structural balance of the government budget and gross government debt for 2000-2019. and the forecast of the International Monetary Fund for 2020-2025. Based on the basic data, the recession in 2020 was determined in the context of the considered categories of countries (Table 2). First, we estimated the average growth of each indicator for each category of countries in 2000-2019. Then, the average (standard) increase was subtracted from the projected growth (the difference between the base values ​​from Table 1 for 2020 and 2019). This is how the forecast increase in 2020 was obtained under the influence of the crisis. Alternative data (third tab) represent the results of a sociological survey conducted by the OECD in 2020 and revealed the share of small and medium-sized businesses that were significantly affected by the COVID-19 crisis in the first half of 2020 and expect a significant deterioration in their situation in the second half of 2020 d. To accurately determine the scale of economic recession in the context of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 in the context of the considered categories of countries, a methodology has been developed. Assuming the calculation of the integral index (first tab).

Institutions

Moskovskij gosudarstvennyj institut mezdunarodnyh otnosenij MID Rossii, MIREA Rossijskij tehnologiceskij universitet

Categories

Economics, Econometrics

License