Compound scenario bankability model for a 1 GW utility-scale solar photovoltaic project in Nigeria
Description
This dataset is a live spreadsheet model of the compound bankability analysis reported in the related article. It evaluates a proposed 1 GW utility-scale solar photovoltaic project in the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria under the simultaneous variation of four uncertainty drivers rather than one driver at a time. The design is a full factorial of four drivers at three levels each, giving 81 scenarios. The drivers are energy yield at the P50, P90, and P95 exceedance levels, grid curtailment at 0, 5, and 10 percent, contracted tariff at 0.115, 0.110, and 0.105 US dollars per kilowatt hour, and capital cost at 845, 887, and 930 million US dollars. For every scenario the model builds a 25-year post-tax cash flow and returns an unlevered project internal rate of return together with a net present value at an 8 percent discount rate. Six scenarios exceed 15 percent, fifty four fall between 12 and 15 percent, and twenty one fall below 12 percent, with the best case at 16.82 percent and the worst at 10.05 percent. Four further engines relax the simplifications behind that matrix. One recomputes all 81 scenarios under the tax credit regime that replaced the Nigerian Pioneer Status Incentive from 1 January 2026. One phases construction spending across two years instead of treating it as a single outlay. Two solve the levered case, returning equity returns, a debt service coverage schedule, and the gearing each scenario can support. The workbook holds twenty six sheets and 12,716 formulas. Nothing is a stored constant except the documented inputs, and the Data_Dictionary sheet describes every column on every sheet. Every formula also carries a cached result, so all values remain legible in readers that do not recalculate. Only standard spreadsheet functions are used, with no macros and no external links, and the file opens in Microsoft Excel, LibreOffice Calc, and Google Sheets. The parameter values originate in a proprietary feasibility study for the project, which cannot be shared. Only non-confidential quantitative inputs and the derived scenario outputs are included here.
Files
Steps to reproduce
1. Open the file in Microsoft Excel, LibreOffice Calc, or Google Sheets. The workbook recalculates on opening. Every formula also carries a stored result, so the numbers are legible even in a viewer that does not recalculate. 2. Read the README sheet first and the Data_Dictionary sheet second. The dictionary names every column on every sheet, its unit, whether it is an input or a derived value, and what it represents. 3. Inputs are confined to four sheets. Assumptions holds the degradation rate, first-year operating cost, cost escalation, corporate tax rate after the holiday, holiday length, discount rate, and analysis horizon. Scenario_Levels holds the three levels of each of the four drivers. Incentive_Regime holds the parameters of the two fiscal regimes. Capital_Structure holds gearing, debt pricing, tenor, the coverage benchmark, and the construction phasing weights. Every other sheet is derived and updates automatically. 4. The reported matrix is on Scenario_Model, one row per scenario. Column G carries the unlevered project internal rate of return and column H the net present value at 8 percent. The underlying year by year cash flows sit on Cashflow_Engine. 5. The headline figures quoted in the article are on Summary_Statistics, the shape of the distribution on Distribution_Statistics, and the influence of each driver on Driver_Decomposition. 6. To reproduce the fiscal regime comparison, read Regime_Comparison, which places both regimes side by side for all 81 scenarios, and Cashflow_Engine_EDTI, which holds the cash flows under the capital expenditure credit. 7. To reproduce a construction phasing other than the one shipped, change the two weights on Capital_Structure. Cashflow_Engine_Phased and Structure_Summary follow automatically. 8. To reproduce a gearing, debt cost, or tenor other than the one shipped, change the corresponding value on Capital_Structure. Cashflow_Engine_Levered, DSCR_Schedule, Debt_Capacity, and Structure_Summary follow automatically. 9. To confirm that the workbook responds as documented, change the corporate tax rate after the holiday on Assumptions from 0.30 to 0.10. The base case return moves from 16.82 to 18.75 percent. 10. To rebuild the model independently, the four equations on the README sheet fully specify it. Given the inputs on Assumptions and Scenario_Levels, all 81 returns can be reconstructed in any programming language without opening this file.
Institutions
- National and Kapodistrian University of AthensAttica, Athens