Wheat crop responds to climate change in rainfed areas of District Mansehra, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa- An Econometric analysis
Agriculture in many ways is affected by climate change and has impact for productivity of crops particularly in rainfed areas. Climate change related research remained a poorly investigated area in KP and instant study filled that gap by investigating impacts of change in climate on farm productivity. The secondary data, spread over 30 years from 1984 to 2013 pertaining to temperature, precipitation, area under cultivation and yield of crops was collected. Analytical models used are ARDL Model. The results pertaining to impact of temperature and precipitation on wheat yield suggest long run relationship among the variables. Temperature is positively and significantly related in Mansehra. The precipitation is positively and significantly related. Short run relationship implies that around 100% deviations from long-term equilibrium are adjusted every year in case of Mansehra. The results wheat areas suggest long run relationship among the variables based on F Statistics value. Both temperature and precipitation are positively and significantly related to the area under wheat in the long run in case of Mansehra. Based on objectives of the research study and field findings recommendations offered include; farmers awareness drive, policies to promote adaptation measures, enhancing farmers’ adaptive capacity to strengthen local resilience, participation of farming community in formulation of policies, making meteorological information available to farmers, Design research plans to evolve crops varieties addressing changing climatic challenges, construct water harvesting structures for high efficiency irrigation and further research to estimate range of temperature and precipitation within which crops under study perform better.