Comparison of the natural increase rate in the Russian Federation, Republic of Kazakhstan, Republic of Belarus, Kyrgyz Republic, and Republic of Estonia for the period from 1990 to 2024
Description
Since 1991, the governments of 15 countries, formerly integrated into a unified cultural, economic, social, and legal framework within the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, have sequentially decided to secede from the union and build sovereign nation-states with independent foreign and domestic policies. The dataset has been compiled with the aim of studying the demographic policies of post-Soviet countries, including the Russian Federation, Republic of Kazakhstan, Republic of Belarus, Kyrgyz Republic, and Republic of Estonia. For consistency in comparison, demographic statistics were obtained from a single source: the non-profit, non-governmental resource “Database.earth,” which bases its data on the report titled “2024 Revision of World Population Prospects” prepared by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations.The files include two tables (with corresponding charts): 1. The natural increase rate in the studied countries over the period from 1990 to 2024. 2. Urban-rural population ratio in the studied countries as of 2024. The natural increase rate is a standardized indicator that allows comparisons between different states regardless of their size or level of economic development. Private trends for individual states. 1. The Russian Federation. After a stable period of positive growth in the late 1980s, the country faced a deep crisis in the first half of the 1990s (-5.7% in 1995). By the beginning of the 21st century, dynamics stabilized, but the overall trend remains negative. Attempts to restore fertility led to temporary improvement in 2015 (+0.3%). 2. Republic of Kazakhstan. The country maintained a positive growth dynamic almost throughout the observation period. The highest peak of growth falls on the early 2010s (13.6% in 2010, 15.2% in 2015), demonstrating high rates of population reproduction. However, by the end of the observed period (2024), there is also a gradual slowdown in growth noted. 3. Republic of Belarus. The situation in Belarus is characterized by alternating positive and negative phases. The beginning of the 1990s was marked by a significant drop, followed by a weak recovery period. Nevertheless, the general tendency is towards maintaining low levels of growth, transitioning into an insignificant minus by the 2020s. 4. Kyrgyz Republic. The only country showing sustained positive values of growth over the entire study period. Although some reduction in positive figures has been observed, nevertheless, it maintains relatively high rates of natural increase (approximately +15-18%). 5. Estonian Republic. This country stands out with the strongest volatility among the reviewed states. Except for one year (2010), natural growth remained consistently negative. The significant fall was observed in the mid-1990s and continued through the first decades of the 21st century.
Files
Steps to reproduce
For consistency in comparison, demographic statistics were obtained from a single source: the non-profit, non-governmental resource “Database.earth,” which bases its data on the report titled “2024 Revision of World Population Prospects” prepared by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations. The natural increase rates of the countries are presented at five-year intervals. An exception is the final value covering four years (2021–2024), due to the unavailability of data for 2025, which cannot be accessible at the time of publication. Conclusion. The analysis reveals considerable diversity within the post-Soviet region. The general decrease in the intensity of natural population growth is noted across former Soviet countries due to structural changes in living standards, economic conditions, and cultural norms. Despite certain positive exceptions, most countries face challenges in sustaining steady population growth. The coefficient of natural increase is a standardized measure allowing comparison among various states irrespective of their sizes and levels of economic development. It represents the difference between general birth and death rates. Declaration on the use of artificial intelligence. The generative neural network Giga Chat was used to correct the translation of text from Russian into English.
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Funding
Federal Agency for Youth Affairs
Youth Science Laboratory Project "Synopsis"