Excel programs for the paper “Prediction of Daily New COVID-19 Cases - Difficulties and Possible Solutions”

Published: 10 May 2024| Version 1 | DOI: 10.17632/p7kd7823c9.1
Xiaoping Liu


This Excel file has computation programs (coded in Excel) based on the l-i SEIR and/or l-i AIR epidemic models, related COVID-19 data (reported daily COVID-19 cases in the USA) and simulated/predicted results. The l-i SEIR model and the l-i AIR model are described by different model equations; however, the equations of the two epidemic models can be converted to each other. In other words, the l-i SEIR model (l-i AIR model) is another form of the l-i AIR model (l-i SEIR model). We have previously described how to derive l-i SEIR model equations from l-i AIR model equations [1]. If the two models have the same parameters and coefficients (l, i, N, α and βn), then the calculated daily COVID-19 cases yn from the two model equations are the same. The simulated or calculated results in this Excel file are presented in the paper entitled “Prediction of Daily New COVID-19 Cases - Difficulties and Possible Solutions” (under review). The related computation programs and calculation results are separately placed in 5 worksheets in the Excel file. Specifically, the Excel programs used for determining transmission rate coefficients βn before Omicron outbreak in the USA are placed in worksheet “time-dependent rate”. The programs for generating Fig 2 in the paper are placed in worksheet “Omicron peaks”. Fig 3 is in worksheet “upper-lower Limits”, Fig 4 in worksheet “Omicron - Reinfection” and Fig 5 in worksheet “Omicron + Reinfection”. References [1] Liu, Xiaoping (2024), “Derivation of l-i SEIR model equations from l-i AIR model equations”, Mendeley Data, V2, doi: 10.17632/czx3p9gphh.2


Steps to reproduce

The sources of all reported data are mentioned in the Excel file. All code in the Excel program can be read directly by clicking on the relevant cell in the worksheet.


Epidemic Dynamics