Philippine Dengue Cases
Dengue is a viral disease spread by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. It is a problem in many tropical and subtropical parts of the world including Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America. In the Philippines, the viral disease is still endemic in all regions wherein annual cases have ranged from 200,000 to 400,000. In this dataset, the weekly cumulative confirmed cases of Dengue in the Philippines from January 1, 2017 to October 8, 2022 were collected from the Philippine Department of Health website. The Excel file has three sheets: Sheet 1 contains the raw data that was extracted from the DOH website; Sheet 2 contains the raw, computed (Δ(X_n-X_(n-1))), and imputed data that were used in building the ARIMA-GARCH and HW models; and, Sheet 3 contains the forecasts from the models considered. The data are useful as they as they can be used to train predictive models that can produce short-term forecasts of Dengue cases in the Philippines. These data can provide dynamic information to health officials and other concerned departments and agencies for surveillance, analysis, policy making, and decision making. The data are reusable and can be used to further explore the dengue cases in the Philippines.
Steps to reproduce
The data were gathered from the weekly reports published by the Department of Health of the Philippines. The cases were reported in cumulative form and computation is needed to determine the actual confirmed cases on the particular week. The actual weekly confirmed cases are computed by computing the difference between the cases confirmed on a particular week and the cases confirmed on the week before Δ(X_n-X_(n-1)). The original dataset (from DOH) contains missing values. The missing data are computed using multiple imputations with predictive mean matching from "mice" package in R. The source code for generating forecasts can be found in https://github.com/samjohnparr/Philippine-Dengue-Forecasts.git