Twelve Years of Unconventional Development - Results of Cash flow Sensitivity Analysis on Price and Cost
Description
This dataset was generated for research on twelve years of unconventional development. Five major unconventional formations in the US were studied: the Bakken, Eagleford, Haynesville, Marcellus, and Wolfcamp formations. The Bakken, Eagleford, and Wolfcamp produce oil as the major fluid phase while the Marcellus and Haynesville are gas plays. We developed 16 type curves per formation for wells completed in 2008 - 2019 (one curve per year excluding 2019 due to insufficient data) and identified four developmental phases of unconventional development over the past 12 years during which D&C technology, initial investment, and commodity prices were similar: Early development phase (Phase 1), Pre-downturn phase (Phase 2), Downturn phase (Phase 3), and Post downturn phase (Phase 4) - four additional curves. One overall type curve for each formation was also generated. The data shown below are the result of a financial performance analysis carried out. Using historical investment data and the generated type curves from historical production data, the financial performance of the wells for the next 15 years was studied using the following variable scenarios: Variable Value Min Max Oil Price ($/bbl) 60 20 100 Gas Price ($/Mcf) 3 1 6 Oil Opex ($/bbl) 5 2.5 10 Gas Opex ($/Mcf) 2 1 4 Water Opex ($/bbl) 3 - - Fixed cost ($/month) 2000 1000 4000 Working Interest 100% - - Royalty Burden 12.5% - - Discount Rate 10% 0% 100% Economic analysis was performed using the discounted cash flow model. At the end of each run, we extract some economic measures (explained in the introduction section) like the net cash flow (NCF), discounted net cash flow or net present value (NPV) at different investment opportunity (or discount) rates (𝑖𝑜𝑝), rate of return (ROR), payout, discounted and undiscounted return on investment (ROI) and the estimated oil and gas recoveries (EURs) at the economic limit. In addition, the type curve parameters used for each case were reported. NA value means that the case was uneconomic and hence those parameters evaluated to NA.
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Steps to reproduce
Original data was retrieved from Drillingingo (Enverus). The data was imported into PHDWin economic software to generate type curves. The type curve parameters were used, along with the price, cost, and tax information to generate this data using a discounted cash flow model. For this last part, the R programming language was used. A shiny app is being put together that performs this analysis and shows the front end plots of the results.