# Fault tree analysis_ The proposal of simple simulation

## Description

The aim of the research paper is to calculate the probability of the top event - the failure of the process using the FTA and the proposal of a simulation performed to reduce the probability of failure of the top event based on the requirements of the manufacturers. We have constructed a qualitative fault tree for the production of office components packed and sealed in blister packs, which takes place on KOCH KBS - PL machinery. We defined the top event G. Then we defined events leading to top events down to individual failure factors. Based on the links between the fault tree and the probability of failure, we performed a quantitative analysis to determine the probability of failure of individual events. We found out that the probability of failure of G is 5.04%. Subsequently, by the stimulation, we have found out which factors are the most significant contributors to the reduction of the resulting probability of failure of the factor G. These are the factors: E, F, AL and D. It has been proved that by controlling these 4 factors we can reduce the probability of failure of top event G to 2.36%. The condition is the application of effective measures. The final proposal was to meet the requirements of several manufacturers for a fast, efficient and undemanding solution. The proposed simulation met the requirements of manu-facturers. It was time and maintenance saving, not demanding on software and hardware re-quirements and has proven its effectiveness and efficiency by reducing the number of top event failure modes. The file itself contains all the data that led to the creation of the final proposal. Proposal for reducing the probability of failure based on quantitative analysis of FT. The chosen proposal will respect the requirements of production organizations. Based on this, we defined 5 simulation requirements: 1) time-saving; 2) minimum software requirements; 3) minimum hardware requirements; 4) easy to use; 5) efficient and ef-fective. The proposal will be a simulation based on the calculations of quantitative analysis using MS Excel software. The aim is to find out which gateways of the fault tree need to be addressed as a matter of priority and what effect this effect will ultimately have in reducing the probability of failure of the TOP event. Then, based on the links and gateways of FT, we will create such a comprehensive system, where by reducing the probability of every single factor, we will also see a change in the probability of the top event G. The proposal of the simulation itself is the work of the authors of the paper. Its simplicity takes into account the requirements of manufacturers. However, the result must be a clear demonstration of increased production efficiency and effectiveness (by reducing the number of top event failure modes), as evidenced by the diagram in Excel.

## Files

## Steps to reproduce

The proposal will be a simulation based on the calculations of quantitative analysis using MS Excel software. The aim is to find out which gateways of the fault tree need to be addressed as a matter of priority and what effect this effect will ultimately have in reducing the probability of failure of the TOP event. Then, based on the links and gateways of FT, we will create such a comprehensive system, where by reducing the probability of every single factor, we will also see a change in the probability of the top event G. Simplicityof proposals takes into account the requirements of manufacturers. However, the result must be a clear demonstration of increased production efficiency and effectiveness (by reducing the number of top event failure modes), as evidenced by the diagram in Excel.