Effect of COVID-19 on global scientific production 2020
Description
COVID-19 has led to a change of scenario for researchers: displacement restrictions; closed universities and research centres; limitations on access to hospitals and laboratories; as well as difficulties in performing fieldwork. In this context, it would be reasonable to ask whether scientific production in 2020 is expected to be affected or not. Dr. Juan José Cabello, Director of the Energy Department of the University of the Coast in Colombia, points out in this regard that he does not believe that there will be a decrease in scientific production since, the works already published in 2020 or those still in evaluation, were generated mainly with research carried out during 2019. According to the characteristics of the university systems of different countries, teachers often have an inelastic work plan, where the burden of teaching and research time have been little altered in 2020. However, in those countries where university systems are mainly private, there is a high dependence on student enrolment per semester, as is the case in Colombia, which already registers two semesters with negative enrollment growth. This situation has generated a teaching recharge in the teachers of the plant, as well as the completion of contracts to teachers with less time of dedication to teaching and research. However, this is not the case in Romania, where the Government has reduced the requirements of admission to the University, eliminating the specific tests of almost all specialties, except medicine, law and architecture, which has generated a massive income of students to the first year. As a result, by 2020 university professors have had to increase their teaching hours, thus reducing those dedicated to research. Below is the results obtained after comparing the scientific productions of the 44 most productive countries in the world: with scientific productions exceeding 14 thousand articles in 2019. Several scenarios have been analyzed to estimate whether 2020 scientific output progresses along with the previous year on the same date (read to August 28). In light of the data, the scientific output of 2020 will not be much lower than that of 2019: the decrease in expected productions will not symmetrically affect all scientific systems. Eastern European countries show a higher level of affectation than other regions of the world, all above 10%. In the analyzed set, Colombia is the only Western country with contractions above 5%. It is interesting to wonder what the ability of countries to produce science will be in 2021. Surely the countries that by 2020 already show a decrease in scientific production will be aggravated by 2021. Other countries moving in an area of indifference between growing and not growing may fall into moderate contraction. Some regions of the world will probably continue to grow, as Arab countries already show. Complete post in https://www.scimagolab.com/blog/
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