Shale Mechanism Data: Oil-Directed Drilling, Associated Gas, and Henry Hub Dynamics (1998–2025)
Description
This dataset supports the manuscript “Shale Mechanism: Oil Incentives, Associated Gas, and Henry Hub Dynamics.” It contains the full data architecture used to estimate a mechanism-first econometric framework linking oil incentives to natural gas prices through delayed drilling and associated gas production in oil-directed basins. The dataset includes: Raw source files from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), rig counts, and price benchmarks Processed monthly panels used for econometric estimation (1998–2025) Basin-level datasets distinguishing oil-directed and gas-directed production regions Derived variables including associated-gas aggregates, storage flows, and system-state controls Feature matrices used in the machine-learning screening stage Supporting documentation, including variable definitions and methodological structure The analytical framework tests a conditional transmission chain: oil prices → delayed drilling → oil-directed associated gas → Henry Hub The dataset enables full reproducibility of: Descriptive timing and correlation analysis Distributed-lag drilling models Basin-level associated-gas estimation Henry Hub econometric models Cointegration and restricted VECM long-run analysis Machine-learning screening and translation-back models Forecast periods present in raw EIA files are excluded from the historical identification sample. The final econometric sample runs from January 1998 to December 2025.
Files
Steps to reproduce
This dataset supports a staged empirical design: 1. Descriptive analysis of oil–gas relationships across eras 2. Distributed-lag drilling response estimation 3. Basin-level associated-gas modelling 4. Henry Hub price regressions with system controls 5. Cointegration and restricted multivariate VECM 6. Machine-learning screening for nonlinearities and state classification 7. Translation of ML findings into interpretable econometric models All variables, transformations, and sample definitions are documented in the included variable dictionary and appendix.