NUTS2 Level Land Use and Land Cover Quantifications under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways, 2020-2050

Description

This dataset provides consistent projections of land use and land cover (LULC) for European NUTS2 regions under the five Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) from 2020 to 2050. The projections are generated with G-RDEM [1], a recursive-dynamic global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model implemented in the open-source platform CGEBox [2]. Designed to capture long-term structural change, G-RDEM simulates economic and land use dynamics directly at the NUTS2 level, avoiding the need for post-model downscaling. European Union (EU) member states follow the 2016 NUTS2 classification [3], while European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries and EU accession candidates follow the 2008 NUTS2 classification [4]. The dataset includes: • Scenarios: - SSP1 - SSP2 - SSP3 - SSP4 - SSP5 • Regions: - NUTS2 regions for EU member states, EU accession candidates, and EFTA countries - Country level results for Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, the rest of North Africa, Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine - Continental aggregates for the rest of the world • Land cover and corresponding land uses: - Built-up land * No economic land uses - Cropland * Apples * Bananas/ plantains * Barley * Citrus fruits * Cocoa beans * Coffee beans * Grapes * Leguminosae * Maize * Nuts * Oats * Olives * Other cereals * Other crops * Other fruits * Other oilseeds * Other roots/ tubers * Other vegetables * Paddy rice * Palm oil fruit * Plant-based fibres * Potatoes * Rape seed * Rye * Sorghum * Soy bean * Sugar cane/ beet * Teas * Tomatoes * Wheat * All cropland uses are further differentiated between irrigated and rainfed variants - Managed forest * Forestry - Other land (rock, ice, desert) * No economic land uses - Pastureland * Cattle for meat * Raw milk * Ruminants for meat * Wool - Savannah/ grassland * No economic land uses - Shrubland * No economic land uses - Unmanaged forest * No economic land uses • Units: mio ha • Temporal coverage: 2020–2050, 2- and 5-year intervals • Format: CSV and XLSX The dataset is suitable for applications in climate impact research, ecosystem service assessment, water and biodiversity modelling, land use and land cover planning, and other policy scenario analysis.

Steps to reproduce

The dataset can be reproduced with the open-source CGEBox modelling platform (https://www.ilr1.uni-bonn.de/en/research/research-groups/economic-modeling-of-agricultural-systems/cgebox), using the following modules: • G-RDEM • GTAP_AEZ • GTAP_E • MTOE • CO2_Emissions • NON_CO2_Emissions • Sub-Regions The input data are based on the GTAP v11 Power dataset (license required) and are extended to incorporate both sub-national and LULC detail. Sub-national disaggregation is performed automatically within the CGEBox framework when the processed database includes European countries as single entities. LULC refinement builds on the fao_agr and water_fab_a SAM split procedures. Workflow: Generate disaggregated input data, configure G-RDEM with the listed modules, run SSP scenario simulations, export LULC outputs for the required time steps. The methodological foundation of the dataset is described in two companion papers: • Paper 1: Data preparation, model configuration, SSP implementation [5]. • Paper 2: NUTS2 and LULC disaggregation [6]. References: [1] Britz, W., Roson, R., 2019. G-RDEM: A GTAP-Based Recursive Dynamic CGE Model for Long-Term Baseline Generation and Analysis. Journal of Global Economic Analysis 4 (1), 50–96. [2] Britz, W., van der Mensbrugghe, D., 2018. CGEBox: A Flexible, Modular and Extendable Framework for CGE Analysis in GAMS. Journal of Global Economic Analysis 3 (2), 106–177. [3] EC, Commission Regulation (EU) 2016/2066 of 21 November 2016 amending the annexes to Regulation (EC) No 1059/2003 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the establishment of a common classification of territorial units for statistics (NUTS), 2016. [4] EC, Statistical regions for the EFTA countries and the Candidate countries 2008, 2008. [5] T. Goebel, W. Britz, 2025 a. Global land use and land cover projections under the shared socio-economic pathways: An integrated computable general equilibrium analysis with sub-national resolution for Europe. Global Environmental Change Advances 5, 100027. [6] T. Goebel, W. Britz, 2025 b. NUTS2 level dataset on land use and land cover projections for Europe under the shared socio- economic pathways through 2050, Data in Brief.

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