Numeracy Predicts Susceptibility to Base Rate Neglect, Probability Matching, and Ratio Bias

Published: 17 December 2020| Version 1 | DOI: 10.17632/xhkwjb58rs.1
Ryan Corser


Higher numeracy is associated with better comprehension and use of numeric information as well as reduced susceptibility to some decision biases. We extended this line of work by showing that increased numeracy predicted probability maximizing (versus matching). At the same time, the more numerate were less susceptible to the ratio bias and base rate neglect measured by non-causal base rate scenarios. Decision time predicted accuracy for the ratio bias and probability matching scenarios, but not the base rate scenarios. Interestingly, this relationship between decision time and accuracy was positive for the ratio bias problems, but negative for the probability matching scenario. Please contact author with questions about this manuscript or data set.



University of Toledo


Judgment Bias, Numeracy