Data from: Improving natural gas demand forecasts: An approach combining bootstrap aggregation, time series methods and regularization techniques

Published: 03-03-2019| Version 1 | DOI: 10.17632/xkk4mx3vdg.1
Contributors:
Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira,
Erick de Oliveira

Description

Original data: monthly gross inland natural gas consumption (in Terajoules, TJ) in each of the 14 countries included in the analysis. The data were collected from the Statistical Office of the European Union (EUROSTAT, 2019) database. The time period of the analysis spans from January 2008 to June 2018 (the last date available for all European countries). Data ranging from January 2008 to June 2017 were considered as training set for models using the traditional aggregation routines (mean and median). For models employing the regularization routines, a validation set is included between the months of July 2016 and June 2017, in which appropriate weights are assigned to each of the bagged forecasts. The test set, in turn, comprised the last 12 observations (July 2017 – June 2018). The original data can also be found in the supplementary material of the submitted manuscript (Appendix C). A total of 14 countries were selected for the empirical analysis. An endeavor was made to include most of the major consuming countries in Europe, namely France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Turkey and United Kingdom. To demonstrate the flexibility of the proposed approaches, we also selected several medium (Belgium, Poland and Romania) and minor consuming countries (Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Luxembourg and Slovakia). We finally emphasize that not every country could be included in the analysis, due to the lack of data (missing information and/or dataset starting after January 2008). References: EUROSTAT (European Statistics) [dataset]. January 7, 2019 Supply of gas - monthly data [nrg_103m] / UNIT: Terajoules (gross calorific value = GCV) / PRODUCT: Natural gas / INDIC_NRG: Gross inland consumption. 2019 Jan 7 [cited 2019 Jan 7]. Available from: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/energy/data/database

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Steps for accessing EUROSTAT (2019): Available from: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/energy/data/database SERIES: Supply of gas - monthly data [nrg_103m] UNIT: Terajoules (gross calorific value = GCV) PRODUCT: Natural gas INDIC_NRG: Gross inland consumption