Scientific data for measuring the evolution of technological innovation: using US historical data of some Funtional Measures of Technology in the farm tractor, locomotive, generation of electricity in steam-powered and internal combustion plants

Published: 6 April 2018| Version 1 | DOI: 10.17632/y7p2ztsr8y.1
Contributor:
Mario Coccia

Description

Scientific data for measuring evolution of technological innovation: using US historical data of some Funtional Measures of Technology (FMT) in the farm tractor (1920-1968), locomotive (1904-1967), generation of electricity in steam-powered and internal combustion plants (1920-1970) FMTs for farm tractor in the scientific data enclosed are: - fuel-consumption efficiency in horsepower-hours over 1920-1968 CE indicates the technological advances of engines (a subsystem) of farm tractors. This FMT represents the dependent variable P in the model. - mechanical efficiency (ratio of drawbar horsepower to belt or power take-off –PTO- horsepower) over 1920-1968 CE is a proxy of the technological advances of farm tractor. This FMT represents the explanatory variable H in the model. For freight locomotive, FMTs are: - Tractive efforts in pound over 1904-1932 CE indicate the technological advances of locomotive. This FMT represents the dependent variable P in the model. - Total railroad mileage over 1904-1932 CE indicates the evolution of the infrastructure system of railroad. This FMT represents the explanatory variable in the model. For steam-powered electricity-generating technology, FMTs are: - Average fuel-consumption efficiency in kilowatt-hours per pound of coal over 1920-1970 CE indicates the technological advances of boiler, turbines and electrical generator (subsystems of steam-powered plant). This FMT represents the dependent variable P in the model. - Average scale of plant utilization (the ratio of net production of steam-powered electrical energy in millions of kilowatt-hours to number of steam powered plants) over 1920-1970 CE indicates a proxy of the technological advances of the overall electricity-generating plants. This FMT represents the explanatory variable in the model. For internal-combustion type electric power technology, FMTs are: - Average fuel-consumption efficiency in kilowatt-hours per cubic foot of gas 1920-1970 CE indicates the technological advances of boiler, turbines and electrical generator (subsystems of internal combustion plant). This FMT represents the dependent variable P in the model. - Average scale of plant utilization (the ratio of net production of electrical energy by internal-combustion type plants in millions of kilowatt-hours to total number of these plants) over 1920-1970 CE indicates a proxy of the technological advances of the overall electricity-generating plants with this internal-combustion technology. This FMT represents the explanatory variable in the model. For model see the steps to reproduce.

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Steps to reproduce

Model of the technological evolution implemented here (based on the biological principle of allometry) is : Ln Pt = Ln a + B1 Ln Ht + ut (with ut = error term) a is a constant Pt will be the extent of technological advances of technology P that represents a subsystem of the Host technology H at time t Ht will be the extent of technological advances of technology H that represents the host technology of an interacting subsystem technology P at time t; H technology is the driving force of the evolutionary growth of overall interrelated subsystems of technology. in the model is the evolutionary coefficient of growth that measures the evolution of technology and is quantified in real instances in the next section. This model of the evolution of technology has linear parameters that are estimated with the Ordinary Least-Squares Method. The value of in the model measures the relative growth of P in relation to the growth of H and indicates different patterns of technological evolution: B1<1 (underdevelopment), B1 >= 1 (growth or development of technology). In particular, B1<1 , whether technology P (a subsystem of H) evolves at a lower relative rate of change than technology H; the whole host technology H has a slowed evolution (underdevelopment) over the course of time. B1 has a unit value: B1=1, then the two technologies P and H have proportional change during their evolution: i.e., a coevolution between a whole system of technology (H) and its interacting subsystem P. This case of the proportional change generates a technological evolution of isometry between elements of a complex system. In short, when B=1, the whole system of technology H here has a proportional evolution of its component technologies (growth) over the course of time. B1>1 , whether P evolves at greater relative rate of change than H; this pattern denotes disproportionate technological advances in the structure of a subsystem P as a consequence of change in the overall structure of a host technological system H. The whole system of technology H has an accelerated evolution (development) over the course of time.

Institutions

Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Arizona State University

Categories

Technological Change, Technological Forecasting, Economics of Technology, Technology Development, Innovation Economics, Technological Evolution, Technology, Technology Diffusion, Applied Economics, Technological Innovation, Technological Trajectory

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