Carreon et al. Modeling the spatial distribution of dung beetles under climate change scenarios: Insights based on nesting strategy, body size and period of activity

Description

Climate change is expected to exert varying effects on different taxa and species, affecting both their abundance and distribution ranges. Previous studies have used climate niche models (CNMs) to estimate shifts in the distribution of insects, without considering whether the effects of climate change may vary depending on their functional traits. In this study, we used CNMs to estimate shifts in the distribution ranges of 33 species of dung beetles under climate change scenarios (i.e., shared socioeconomic pathways) for the period 2041–2060 in the USA, Mexico, and Central America. We evaluated whether these changes were significantly different between nesting strategies, body size, and period of activity of dung beetles. The resulting models are provided in a KMZ file "Supplementary Material - Maps". For each species, we included the occurrence data and a map whose pixels indicate the probability of occurrence under the current climate and four other maps indicating the probability of occurrence under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP). All maps display Highly Suitable Habitats (HSH) in green, Moderately Suitable Habitats (MSH) in orange, and Unsuitable Habitats (UH) as empty areas. Additionally, in the file "Supplementary Material 1" we included relevant information about each species, the AUC value for each model of each species, and the percentage of HSH, MSH, and UH for all 33 species of dung beetles. Lastly, the linear regressions for each species and each SSP are included, as well as the linear regressions for each functional trait considered in this study (period of activity, nesting strategy, and average body length).

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