Asymmetric Macroeconomic Impacts on Deindustrialization in Nigeria: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach

Description

📄 Data Description This dataset underpins the empirical analysis presented in the manuscript titled "Asymmetric Macroeconomic Impacts on Deindustrialization in Nigeria: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach". It comprises a carefully curated selection of macroeconomic indicators that collectively capture structural changes in Nigeria’s economy from an industry-focused lens. Variables included are: • Agriculture Share of GDP (%) • Services Share of GDP (%) • Industry Share of GDP (%) • Industry GDP Share Changes (%) • Industry Activity Growth Rate (%) • Deindustrialization (DIN): Proxy measure for structural economic transition away from industrial production. • Inflation (INF): Reflects consumer price changes and economic stability. • Exchange Rate (EXR): Influences trade dynamics and competitiveness. • Monetary Policy Rate (MPR): Set by the Central Bank of Nigeria to manage interest rates and money supply. • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Indicates cross-border capital flows and investment attractiveness. • Trade Openness (TOP): Measures Nigeria’s integration into global trade. • Total Electricity Consumption (TEC, in GWh): Serves as a proxy for economic activity and developmental intensity. In the modeling framework—specifically, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach—TOP and TEC are incorporated as control variables to better isolate asymmetric responses to macroeconomic changes. All data points are annual and were sourced from: • Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN): Monetary and financial datasets. • National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Official national statistics covering economic sectors. • World Bank Database: For broader comparative metrics and internationally consistent indicators. The dataset was compiled to support time-series econometric analysis aimed at examining the nonlinear and asymmetric impacts of selected macroeconomic variables on the process of deindustrialization in Nigeria.

Steps to reproduce

🧪 Data Collection and Research Workflow The research employs a longitudinal macroeconomic design, spanning 1981 to 2023, to study deindustrialization in Nigeria. The dataset was assembled based on stylized facts, statistical modeling protocols, and a reproducible econometric framework as outlined below: 📘 1. Study Period and Data Scope • Timeframe: Annual data from 1981 to 2023 • Focus: Economic indicators related to deindustrialization and macroeconomic variables • Sectors Analyzed: Industry, Services, Agriculture 📊 2. Data Sources • Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN): Monetary aggregates, MPR, exchange rates • National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): GDP shares, employment distribution • World Bank (World Development Indicators): FDI, trade openness, electricity consumption 🔍 3. Data Collection Method • Data was manually extracted from official reports and statistical bulletins, then cross-referenced for consistency • Employment share and industrial sector trends derived from digitized datasets and reports ⚙️ 4. Instruments & Software • Microsoft Excel: Data cleaning and preprocessing • EViews 12: Econometric modeling, unit root tests, regression analysis, NARDL estimations • Wald Test Module in EViews: For asymmetry validation 📐 5. Analytical Design & Statistical Protocols • Empirical Hypothesis Testing: LS regression to determine statistical significance of DIN trend • Unit Root Test: Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), with structural break detection in 1992 • Covariance Analysis: Measures variable interdependencies to inform model specification • Model Specification: Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL), capturing asymmetric short- and long-term effects o Decomposition: Positive and negative partial sums for each macroeconomic variable o Wald asymmetry tests for confirming model asymmetries o Dynamic multiplier analysis for impulse-response interpretation 📌 6. Reproducibility Notes • All transformations, regression scripts, and diagnostic plots can be reproduced using EViews code saved alongside the dataset • Variable definitions and source origins are documented within the Excel metadata sheet for transparency

Institutions

• Central Bank of Nigeria

Categories

Licence