Recent slowing Arctic-amplified warming drives an unprecedented water recovery in the world’s most voluminous freshwater lake

Description

The Lake Baikal, containing one-fifth of Earth’s unfrozen surface freshwater, faces increasing hydrological uncertainty under climate change. Its water balance depends on Selenga River inflow and Angara River outflow. We present a 343-year combined Selenga and Angara streamflow reconstruction using a tree-ring network to provide a multi-century hydroclimatic baseline. The reconstruction captures intermittent drying trends throughout the 20th century, including a ~90% streamflow decline from high levels, consistent with long-term regional aridification. This trend has reversed sharply over the last decade showing a most sustained ~80% increase. The recent hydrological recovery is consistent with basin-wide vegetation greening, rising lake levels, and favorable eco-climatic conditions, primarily improved water availability. Rapidly changing atmospheric circulations associated with a regional slowing Arctic-amplified warming drive enhanced moisture transports. The contrasting trend between recent recovery and preceding long-term decline underscores the need for adaptive management strategies to account for non-stationary dynamics in safeguarding critical freshwater resources.

Institutions

• Yunnan University

  Yunnan, Kunming

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