IMPACTS OF CLIMATE PROJECTIONS ON FLOW REGIME INTO RIBEIRÃO SERRA AZUL WATERSHED (MG)
Climate change represents a major concern about the future, especially with about water resources and the consequent changes in water availability. These problems caused by climate change associated with population increase and high urbanization rate causes a scenario of water stress. In this context, we can mention the example of the Belo Horizonte Metropolitan Region (BHMR), which experienced, in the recent past, a situation of the worst drought in the last 70 years. Thus, the present work aims to evaluate the response of the hydrological regime of the study area to the climate change scenarios. For this, the rain-flow SMAP model was used to obtain the flow estimates for the period from 2015 to 2050, based on the precipitation and temperature projections of the climate models MIROC5 and HADGEM2-ES. In general, such models don't show a clear trend in comparison to the observed data, since sometimes they overestimate, and sometimes they underestimate the precipitation data. This observation is confirmed by analyzing the behavior of the water supply reservoir for the metropolitan region. The scenarios of the MIROC5 model have good indicators of reliability and vulnerability of reservoir, but have low values of resilience. The HADGEM2-ES model, on the other hand, represents unsatisfactory values for all analyzed indicators, being characterized as a situation of water insecurity.