R Codes for Macroeconomic Impacts of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks to the Philippine Economy and Livestock SAM

Description

Thanks to Dr. Deborah Kim Sy of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Tokyo, Japan in constructing the livestock-based SAM from PSA’s 2018 Input-Output table. This dataset applies an 18×18 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier model, implemented entirely in R, to evaluate the short-run economy-wide consequences of a contraction in Philippine poultry output associated with HPAI outbreaks. The analysis simulates a 6 percent reduction in poultry production, based on the observed decline in national poultry output during 2019-2020. The initial 6 percent contraction (−PHP 22.31 billion) in chicken production generated a total modeled reduction of 10.75 percent in CHIX output after accounting for the direct, indirect, and induced effects captured by the SAM multiplier system. The shock generates substantial direct and indirect effects across poultry production, feed manufacturing, agricultural input supply, food processing, employment, and household incomes, demonstrating the strong intersectoral linkages of the Philippine poultry sector. Results show that HPAI is not only an animal health and food-security concern but also a potential economy-wide shock with significant implications for production, supply chains, employment, and household welfare.

Institutions

• Massey University

  Manawatu-Wanganui, Palmerston North

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