Global amphibian climate refugia for amphibians

Description

Data associated with the article titled "Global climate refugia for amphibians: a multi-scenario assessment of extinction risk and protected area priorities" (preprint: https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.09.25.615003). Aim: To delineate global climate refugia for all three amphibian orders using multi-scenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSPs) projections, identify biogeographic and biome-level patterns of refugia loss, and determine the minimum subset of existing protected areas needed to conserve projected refugia. Location: Global. Taxon: Class Amphibia (orders Anura, Caudata, Gymnophiona). Methods: MaxEnt species distribution models for 4,035 species projected under four SSPs across four time periods (2021-2100) using CMIP6 models MIROC6 and CNRM-CM6-1; refugia calculated as the mean of current and all future projected suitabilities, thresholded at the maximum training sensitivity plus specificity value; results extracted to geographic regions, Udvardy biomes, and the global protected area network; minimum protected area subset identified by optimization. Results: Refugia area was reduced relative to current suitable area for 2,864-2,959 species dependent on SSP; 136-139 species face complete refugia loss. Caudata and Gymnophiona showed the greatest declines (-29.8 to -37.5%). Only 539 protected areas cover projected refugia for nearly all species. Patterns of refugia loss varied significantly across Udvardy biomes and geographic regions, with tropical and island-locked families disproportionately affected. Main conclusions: A targeted subset of the existing protected area network is sufficient to conserve projected refugia for most modeled amphibian species, though climate change will eliminate refugia entirely for 136-139 species irrespective of protection. Species losing all refugia are disproportionately island, high-elevation, and range-restricted endemics with limited dispersal capability, for whom no PA-based solution exists under either climate model. Biogeographic position, dispersal limitation, and life-history traits predict family-level vulnerability. These findings provide a spatially explicit global framework for amphibian refugia conservation.

Institutions

• University of Arizona

  Arizona, Tucson
• Ewha Womans University

  Seoul, Seoul
• Nanjing Forestry University

  Jiangsu, Nanjing

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