Scenario matrix data file and supplementary workbook for the SMR cost screening of Greek noninterconnected islands
Description
This dataset supports the article submitted to Progress in Nuclear Energy under manuscript reference PNUCENE-D-26-00528. It contains the numerical basis for a plant level cost screening of a small modular reactor (SMR) against the documented cost of autonomous oil based supply for Greek noninterconnected islands (NIIs). The deposit contains two files. The comma separated file, PNE_Scenario_Matrix_dataset.csv, holds the eighteen modelled scenarios that correspond to the bars shown in Figure 1 of the article, together with the ten euro per megawatt hour back end adder. The workbook, PNE_Supplementary_Material.xlsx, contains eleven sheets with the benchmark derivation, the full scenario matrix, the one at a time sensitivity ranges, the lower island utilization checks, the stress and high cost checks, the derived checks, the illustrative renewable comparison, the main text comparison table, the scope notes, and a dashboard. Two adders are documented, and they are distinct. A ten euro per megawatt hour back end adder is applied across the full scenario matrix as a conservative check for waste management and decommissioning burden. A separate fifteen euro per megawatt hour reserve and balancing adder is applied only to the lower island utilization checks for Scenario S1. With both adders combined, the 50 percent and 40 percent island utilization cases reach 157.5 and 187.9 euro per megawatt hour, the latter approaching the central benchmark and qualifying the headline result rather than confirming it. The workbook also contains the existing nuclear and small unit robustness checks reported as Table 7 of the article. These anchor the overnight capital cost to Darlington cost evidence and to a small unit capital cost premium rather than to the model based ranges alone. The scenario values in the comma separated file correspond to the eighteen bars shown in Figure 1 of the article. The central oil based benchmark used throughout is 193.57 euro per megawatt hour. All values are provided exactly as analysed.
Files
Steps to reproduce
The scenario values come from a plant level levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) calculation for a 300 MWe small modular reactor (SMR), screened against the documented cost of autonomous oil based supply for Greek noninterconnected islands. The oil based benchmark of 193.57 euro per megawatt hour was taken from Greek regulatory sources and held fixed. Reactor cost inputs were drawn from peer reviewed anchors and publicly documented projects, not calibrated to any single vendor claim. The matrix crosses three overnight capital cost levels, three WACC values at 7, 8.5, and 10 percent, and two pairings of capacity factor with lifetime, namely 85 percent with 40 years and 92 percent with 60 years, yielding the eighteen scenarios S1 to S18. Each LCOE was computed from the annualized capital cost, the fixed and variable operating cost, and the fuel and back end provisions, divided by the annual output implied by the capacity factor. A second column applies a ten euro per megawatt hour back end adder across the full matrix. Sensitivity ranges were obtained by varying one input at a time around scenario S1, matching Figure 2. The StressChecks sheet documents the lower island utilization checks for S1. At 50 percent utilization the plant level cost is 132.5 euro per megawatt hour and at 40 percent it is 162.9 euro per megawatt hour, before adders. Two distinct adders then apply, the ten euro back end adder and a separate fifteen euro reserve and balancing adder that reflects firm reserve capacity during outages and maintenance. With both applied, the two cases reach 157.5 and 187.9 euro per megawatt hour, the latter approaching the benchmark and qualifying the headline result rather than confirming it. The HighCostChecks sheet documents the Table 7 robustness checks. Cases D1 to D3 anchor the overnight capital cost to Darlington evidence at 12,750 US dollars per kilowatt electric, while SU1 and SU2 apply a forty percent capital cost premium to a sub 100 MWe unit. The comma separated file holds only the eighteen base scenarios and the ten euro adder. The lower utilization checks, the fifteen euro adder, and the Table 7 checks sit solely in the workbook, which a reader should consult for the 187.9 euro result. Both files carry inputs and results, so every figure in the article traces to its underlying numbers.
Institutions
- National and Kapodistrian University of AthensAttica, Athens