Humanitarian Aid and Agricultural Performance as Transmission Channels Between Climate Extremes and Food Availability in Somalia.
Description
Somalia's food crises are shaped by climate variability, weak agricultural capacity, and aid dependence, yet existing studies have not modelled humanitarian aid and agricultural performance as explicit determinants in the climate-food security relationship. This study uses annual time-series data for 1990-2022 and the ARDL bounds-testing approach to estimate the long-run and short-run effects of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, humanitarian aid, crop production, and cereal yield. The bounds test rejects the null of no cointegration. Crop production, the indicator of agricultural performance, has the largest positive long-run effect, followed by humanitarian aid. Temperature is negative and rainfall positive but insignificant, consistent with crop production absorbing the precipitation–food security relationship. Cereal yield carries a negative long-run coefficient, reflecting area-contraction dynamics in which per-hectare productivity gains do not offset aggregate output losses on a shrinking harvested area. Granger causality runs unidirectionally from humanitarian aid to food security with no reverse causality. FMOLS estimates are broadly consistent in direction with the ARDL long-run results, confirming their robustness.
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Institutions
- SIMAD UniversityBanaadir, Mogadishu