SIR Model NWS

Published: 17 January 2022| Version 3 | DOI: 10.17632/gpw4yt3bv2.3
Contributor:
Orwa Al-Abdulla

Description

The research explores the dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in a conflict-affected area, Northwest Syria NWS, from July 2020 to March 2021 using the SIR model. The model was adjusted by the factor of "using face masks" to explore the changes in the outbreak dynamics based on the Ordinary Differential Equation of SIR and to verify the impact of using face masks on controlling and minimizing the transmission rates of the disease. Our findings indicate that applying the SIR model without considering available preventive measures might lead to overestimated figures regarding the number of infected cases. However, when adjusting the model with the factor of "wearing face masks" the resultant figures and number in terms of the number of infected cases were more acceptable and realistic. The research adds information on applying the SIR model after considering a preventive measure "face masks" which is the most viable and applicable measure in emergency settings.

Files

Institutions

Ita-Suomen yliopisto Kuopion kampuskirjasto

Categories

Epidemiology, Public Health, COVID-19

License